Tin: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Tin is a small, thinly traded LME market. Solder for electronics is its largest use, so semiconductor cycles matter, while supply is concentrated in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru and Congo and prone to disruptions.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Tin $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkTin and Copper
Monthly changes 0.60 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.75 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.79 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Tin ≈ 0.958 × (Copper)1.13 R² 0.60 On this fit, a 10% higher copper price goes with a 11.3% higher tin price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt.Chart: Tin and Copper prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Tin price against Copper price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Tin and copper both depend on electronics, construction and the industrial cycle and are traded by the same funds. Monthly moves correlate at 0.60 and yearly at 0.75, rising to 0.79 in the last five years as electrification themes lifted both.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLead-free solder is mostly tin with small amounts of silver and copper, so electronics demand pulls on both, and both attract investment flows. Monthly changes correlate at 0.52 and yearly at 0.58, rising to 0.63 in the last five years.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsTinplate, steel sheet coated with tin, is used for food cans, and tinplate makers buy both metals. The US steel index follows tin only weakly month to month (0.22), but yearly changes correlate at 0.66, mostly through the shared inflation cycle.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsAluminium cans compete with tinplate in drinks and food packaging, and both metals follow industrial demand. Monthly moves correlate at 0.60 and yearly moves at 0.78, a common-driver link rather than a cost one.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsOrganotin compounds stabilise PVC against heat during processing, one of tin's chemical uses. It is a small share of tin demand, and the plastics index follows oil, so monthly moves correlate at only 0.13 while yearly changes reach 0.66.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsEvery circuit board and power module is soldered, so electronics and power equipment output drives tin demand. The proxy is a US transformer price index, which correlates only weakly with tin: 0.14 monthly and 0.38 yearly.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.