Vermiculite: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Vermiculite is a mica-like mineral that expands into light granules when heated. South Africa, Brazil, China, the United States and India mine it. Horticulture, insulation and fireproofing are the main uses, and asbestos-free supply commands a premium.
No public price Vermiculite has no public monthly price series: Priced by grade on private contracts; no public monthly price series.What its price moves with
Vermiculite and perlite compete in horticulture, loose-fill insulation and lightweight plasters. Vermiculite holds more water and nutrients, perlite drains better, so growers blend them and shift the mix when one becomes scarce or costly.
No public price for perlite, so the link is explained in words only.Vermiculite is blended with peat and compost in seed and potting mixes. Demand from commercial nurseries and home gardeners rises together, and limits on peat extraction can raise the mineral share in those mixes.
No public price for peat, so the link is explained in words only.Some vermiculite deposits, notably the former Libby mine in the United States, were contaminated with asbestos fibres and caused serious disease. Buyers now demand tested, asbestos-free ore, which raises costs and favours certain mines.
No public price for asbestos, so the link is explained in words only.Exfoliated vermiculite is mixed with gypsum or cement in sprayed fireproofing for steel beams and in fire-rated boards. Commercial construction and fire safety codes therefore drive this use, and competing fireproofing products made with mineral wool or cement limit its price.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Exfoliation plants heat vermiculite concentrate in gas-fired furnaces near their customers. Fuel cost is a significant part of the price of the expanded product, while the raw ore travels long distances by sea.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.