Biogas and biomethane: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Biomethane is upgraded biogas from manure, crop waste, press mud and food waste. Its price is set by the natural gas it replaces plus subsidies or certificates, and in India by the SATAT scheme's procurement price for compressed biogas.
Proxy US natural gas (Henry Hub) US$/mmbtu · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for biogas and biomethane itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkBiogas and biomethane and Natural gas
Monthly changes 0.20 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.69 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.26 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Biogas and biomethane ≈ 1.60 × (Natural gas)0.37 R² 0.23 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a 3.6% higher biogas and biomethane price over the long run. Units: US$/mmbtu and $/mmbtu. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Biogas and biomethane and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Biogas and biomethane price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Biomethane is injected into gas grids or sold as gas, so gas prices set its basic value. The Henry Hub proxy correlates with European gas at 0.20 for monthly moves and 0.69 for yearly moves, as regional gas markets differ.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsIn India, compressed biogas is sold through CNG stations as a substitute for CNG and LPG. Propane correlates with the gas proxy at 0.13 for monthly moves and 0.62 for yearly moves, a shared fuel cycle.
little or none co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsBiomethane reaches users through gas grids, and delivered gas prices include network costs. The delivered gas index correlates at 0.15 for monthly moves but 0.79 for yearly moves, as utility tariffs adjust slowly to Henry Hub.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsCattle manure is a main biogas feedstock, and dairy farms host many digesters. Milk prices do not set manure supply, so monthly moves correlate at only 0.07 with the gas proxy.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsIndian sugar mills supply press mud, a cane by-product, to many compressed biogas plants. Sugar prices do not set its value directly, so monthly moves correlate at just 0.03 with the gas proxy.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsUpgrading biogas removes carbon dioxide, which can be captured and sold for food or industrial use. The carbon dioxide index correlates at 0.13 monthly with the gas proxy, as its price depends on supply from ammonia and ethanol plants.
little or none co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.