Energy in farming: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Farm energy is mostly diesel for tractors and pumps, electricity for irrigation, and the natural gas embedded in nitrogen fertiliser. The proxy is the US diesel price, so it tracks crude oil and refining margins closely.
Proxy US PPI: No. 2 diesel fuel index · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for energy in farming itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkEnergy in farming and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.70 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.93 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.69 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Energy in farming ≈ 5.54 × (Crude oil)0.90 R² 0.68 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 8.9% higher energy in farming price over the long run. Units: index and $/bbl.Chart: Energy in farming and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Energy in farming price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Diesel is refined from crude oil, so farm fuel costs follow oil. Monthly moves correlate at 0.70 with Brent, with the gap reflecting refining margins for diesel, which widen when refineries are short of capacity.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDiesel is a main refinery product, and refinery output prices largely reflect diesel and petrol. Monthly moves correlate at 0.89 and yearly at 0.98, as the diesel proxy is a large part of what the refinery index measures.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNitrogen fertiliser such as urea is made from ammonia, which uses natural gas, so fertiliser is a hidden energy cost for farms. Monthly moves correlate at 0.30 and yearly at 0.66, a common energy driver.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsGas is the feedstock for ammonia and urea and fuels crop drying in many countries. Yearly moves correlate at 0.71 with European gas, showing a shared energy cycle even though monthly moves are much looser.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBiodiesel made from vegetable oils is blended into diesel and competes with it. The soybean oil proxy correlates at 0.48 monthly, as biofuel mandates tie vegetable oil prices to diesel.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMaize is both a crop that needs diesel and fertiliser and the feedstock for ethanol fuel, so its price moves with energy. Monthly moves correlate at 0.22 and yearly at 0.63, a common driver of energy and farm costs.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.