CNG, LPG and biogas distribution: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
LPG prices follow crude oil and natural gas liquids from US shale and Gulf processing plants, with Saudi contract prices setting the Asian benchmark. India imports much of its cooking gas, and state oil companies set retail prices under government control.
Market price Propane spot price, Mont Belvieu TX US$/gallon · monthly, Jan 2006 to Aug 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkCNG, LPG and biogas distribution and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.67 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.80 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.61 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Aug 2026 CNG, LPG and biogas distribution ≈ 0.0180 × (Crude oil)0.89 R² 0.57 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 8.9% higher CNG, LPG and biogas distribution price over the long run. Units: US$/gallon and $/bbl.Chart: CNG, LPG and biogas distribution and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: CNG, LPG and biogas distribution price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Propane competes with oil products as fuel and petrochemical feedstock, and Middle East LPG contract prices track crude. Propane follows Brent fairly closely: monthly changes correlate at 0.67 and yearly changes at 0.80.
moderate co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsUS shale gas processing produces vast amounts of propane and butane, making the US the largest LPG exporter. The WTI proxy correlates with propane at 0.60 for monthly moves and 0.81 for yearly moves.
moderate co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsPropane dehydrogenation plants turn propane into propylene, and crackers can switch between propane, ethane and naphtha. The petrochemicals proxy correlates at 0.41 for monthly moves and 0.82 for yearly moves.
moderate co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsRefineries produce LPG as a by-product of crude processing, so refinery runs add supply. The refinery products index correlates with propane at 0.51 for monthly and 0.76 for yearly moves, since oil markets set both.
moderate co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsCNG is priced off natural gas, and propane is separated from gas in processing plants. The biomethane tile uses US Henry Hub gas as its proxy, which shows little monthly link to propane, at 0.13, but a moderate yearly one, at 0.62.
little or none co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsLPG travels in specialised gas carriers from the US Gulf and Middle East to Asia. The freight proxy shows almost no link to propane, with monthly moves at 0.10, because it covers deep sea freight broadly rather than gas carriers.
little or none co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.