Embodied energy trade: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Embodied energy trade is the energy used to make goods that cross borders, such as steel, aluminium, fertiliser and solar panels. Its value depends on energy prices where goods are made and on carbon border taxes.
No public price Embodied energy trade has no public monthly price series: A concept, not a traded product; no price exists.What its price moves with
Aluminium smelting uses so much electricity that the metal is sometimes called solid electricity. Smelters move to places with cheap power, and their exports carry that energy to other countries.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Steel uses coal or gas in blast furnaces and direct reduction, and power in electric arc furnaces. Carbon border taxes, such as the EU's, put a price on the emissions embodied in imported steel, including from India.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Ammonia is made mostly from natural gas, so importing ammonia or urea is a way of importing gas. When European gas soared, plants there closed and imports from regions with cheaper gas rose.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Cement kilns burn coal and other fuels and release carbon dioxide from limestone. Cement is heavy and cheap, so it is traded mostly within regions, but clinker exports still carry embodied energy across borders.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Polysilicon refining uses large amounts of electricity, and most of it is made in China. Solar panels exported from there therefore carry energy and emissions from Chinese power grids into importing countries.
No public price for polysilicon, so the link is explained in words only.Industrial power prices decide where energy-intensive goods are made. Regions with dear electricity import more embodied energy, while regions with cheap power or gas export it in the form of metals and chemicals.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.