Nuclear fission reactors: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Reactor fuel is bought mostly on multi-year contracts covering mining, conversion, enrichment and fabrication. Fuel is a small part of the cost of nuclear power, which depends mainly on construction cost, financing and how long plants run.
Proxy IMF uranium price US$/lb · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for nuclear fission reactors itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkNuclear fission reactors and Hydrofluoric acid
Monthly changes -0.02 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.20 weak correlation Last 5 years -0.05 monthly changes Lead or lag −2 mo Nuclear fission reactors tends to lead by 2 months (r 0.15) Price function, Dec 2008 to Sep 2026 Nuclear fission reactors ≈ 1.10 × (Hydrofluoric acid)0.77 R² 0.15 On this fit, a 10% higher hydrofluoric acid price goes with a 7.6% higher nuclear fission reactors price over the long run. Units: US$/lb and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Nuclear fission reactors and Hydrofluoric acid prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2008, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2008, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Nuclear fission reactors price against Hydrofluoric acid price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2008), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.The tile uses the uranium price itself as its proxy, so the two series are identical and no separate statistics are shown. Utilities buy most uranium through long-term contracts, which damps the effect of spot spikes on running reactors.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Uranium concentrate is turned into uranium hexafluoride using hydrogen fluoride before enrichment. Conversion is a small specialist market with few plants and privately negotiated prices, so the acid proxy and uranium show almost no relation, with monthly moves correlating at -0.02.
little or none co-movement month to month · 214 months Show chartsFuel rods are clad in zirconium alloys because zirconium absorbs few neutrons. Nuclear grade metal must have its hafnium removed, a costly step, so cladding supply depends on a handful of producers rather than on the wider zirconium mineral market.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Gas plants compete with nuclear in power markets, and high gas prices raise the value of existing reactors and support new build decisions. The link works over years through policy and investment, so monthly moves show no relation, correlating at 0.04.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsReactor vessels, containment liners and reinforcing bars need large amounts of steel, alongside cement. Construction cost dominates nuclear economics, yet the uranium proxy cannot reflect it, so monthly moves correlate at only 0.05 with the steel index.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsFresh fuel, uranium hexafluoride cylinders and spent fuel all travel in licensed casks along a few approved routes. Limited carriers and routes can delay deliveries, one reason utilities hold larger fuel inventories than most power plants.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.