Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression are engineered compressor systems. The proxy is the US heat pump index. Capital cost follows compressors, exchangers and steel, while running economics rest on electricity versus gas prices, since they replace gas-fired steam.
Proxy US PPI: heat pumps index · monthly, Dec 2009 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkIndustrial heat pumps and vapour recompression and Natural gas
Monthly changes -0.10 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.42 moderate correlation Last 5 years -0.19 monthly changes Lead or lag −2 mo Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression tends to lead by 2 months (r 0.15) Price function, Dec 2009 to Sep 2026 Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression ≈ 97.1 × (Natural gas)0.09 R² 0.21 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a 0.9% higher industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression price over the long run. Units: index and $/mmbtu. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2009, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2009, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2009), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Industrial heat pumps replace gas boilers that raise steam, so the gas price sets what they save. Monthly moves correlate at -0.10 with European gas but yearly at 0.42, showing a slow, shared industrial cycle rather than a direct price link.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsHeat pumps run on electricity, so the ratio of power to gas prices decides their payback. The industrial power proxy correlates at -0.03 monthly with the heat pump index, as equipment prices follow manufacturing costs, not tariffs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsA heat pump's core is a compressor, and vapour recompression uses large steam compressors. Yearly moves correlate at 0.55 with the compressor index, a common driver from shared machinery costs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsGas boilers and furnaces are the incumbent technology for process heat. Yearly moves correlate at 0.55 and monthly at 0.07 with the heating equipment index, a moderate yearly common driver from US manufacturing costs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsIndustrial units share compressors, refrigerants and exchangers with building heat pumps and air conditioners. Monthly moves correlate at 0.28 and yearly at 0.63, a moderate link from shared components. Scale in building heat pumps helps lower industrial costs.
weak co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsMany industrial heat pumps use fluorinated refrigerants, while high-temperature units turn to natural fluids or steam. Yearly moves correlate at 0.23 with the fluorocarbon proxy, a weak cost link. Phase-down rules raise the cost of older fluids.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.