Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression: Impact and additionality

Turning factory flames into cleaner, falling grid emissions

What this tab covers The impact and additionality lens: direct emission cuts, side benefits for water and air, and the risk of prolonging the life of a polluting host plant.

Heat pumps replace on-site fuel with electricity, turning Scope 1 emissions into smaller Scope 2 emissions that fall as the grid decarbonises.

Direct Scope 1 and Scope 2 abatement

Favourable

DOE's illustration: delivering 1 MMBtu of heat takes 1.25 MMBtu of fuel in an 80% efficient boiler, but only 0.22 MMBtu (about 65 kWh, calculated) of electricity plus 0.78 MMBtu of waste heat in a heat pump with a COP of 4.5. With gas at 0.0053 t CO2 per therm, the boiler emits about 66 kg CO2, so the heat pump wins on any grid below about 1 kg CO2 per kWh (calculated), which includes coal-heavy grids. Japan had nearly 650 MW of industrial heat pumps in 2024, about 1% of light-industry heat; the IEA puts the technical potential at about 20% of global industrial heat. In the EU, process heat below 200 C amounts to about 722 TWh of final energy (37% of process heat), while the installed stock of industrial heat pumps accounts for only about 7 TWh of final energy (2022 data), according to the European Heat Pump Association.111518

Fuel per MMBtu heat, gas boiler 1.25 MMBtu1 Electricity per MMBtu heat, heat pump at COP 4.5 0.22 MMBtu1 Break-even grid intensity about 1 kg CO2 per kWh (calculated)111 Japan industrial heat pump capacity, 2024 nearly 650 MW5

Water and air synergy

Favourable

Removing on-site combustion eliminates local NOx and particulates. MVR evaporators need almost no cooling water, against about 60 m3 per tonne evaporated for a single-effect steam evaporator and 15 m3 for four effects (at a 10 K cooling water rise). Refrigerant leakage is a climate risk with older high-global-warming fluids, which newer low-GWP refrigerants address.72

Cooling water, single-effect evaporator about 60 m3 per t evaporated7 Cooling water, four-effect evaporator about 15 m3 per t7 Cooling water, MVR minor7

Avoided lock-in

Favourable

Heat pumps are an electrification technology and fit a net-zero path, so lock-in risk is low. They do depend on a waste-heat source, but most sources (cooling water, dryer exhaust, evaporator vapour) remain after a host decarbonises. IEA scenarios see heat pumps rising from below 1% of light-industry heat in 2025 to about 8% by 2035 under stated policies and about 20% in a net-zero pathway.5

Light-industry heat share, 2035 stated policies about 8% (from below 1% in 2025)5 Light-industry heat share, 2035 net zero about 20%5

Sources

  1. Waste Heat Recovery: Technology and Opportunities in U.S. Industry (BCS Inc. for US DOE Industrial Technologies Program) US Department of Energy, 2008
  2. High temperature heat pumps: Market overview, state of the art, research status, refrigerants, and application potentials (Arpagaus, Bless, Uhlmann, Schiffmann, Bertsch), Energy 152, 985-1010 Elsevier (via RePEc IDEAS), 2018
  3. Heat Pump Monitor 2026: Key findings IEA, 2026
  4. Heating options for thermal separation plants: MVR and TVR, specific utility consumption table (vendor data) GEA Group, 2026
  5. Not Just Hot Air: Low-Cost Decarbonization through Heat Recovery (Zahlan and Talan, Cadmus), ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry ACEEE, 2021
  6. Industrial heat pumps position paper European Heat Pump Association, 2025