LNG chain: Geopolitics and regulation

Hormuz shut, Ras Laffan hit and a US export wave

2026 has been the most disruptive year for LNG since the trade began: war closed the Strait of Hormuz and damaged Qatar's plant, while the US export wave and the EU ban on Russian LNG reshaped flows.

Tailwinds

US LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf per day in the first half of 2026, up 23% on a year earlier; Golden Pass began exporting in April 2026¹³

Since the start of March 2026, CP2 Phase 2, Delfin LNG and Commonwealth LNG reached final investment decision, all due to start in 2030¹²

First 8 Mtpa train expected ready in November 2026 with output in early 2027, later than the mid-2026 target set in 2025, after Hormuz delayed equipment deliveries¹⁷¹⁸¹⁹

Headwinds

In effect closed from the end of February 2026, cutting off almost 20% of world LNG supply; a mid-June US-Iran interim deal set a framework for reopening¹²

QatarEnergy halted output and declared force majeure after an Iranian drone attack on 2 March; missile strikes on 18 to 19 March damaged Trains 4 and 6 (12.8 Mtpa, about 17% of export capacity), with repairs put at 3 to 5 years. An analyst put lost Qatari exports at about 30 Mt by August¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶

IEA expects 2026 LNG supply to be broadly flat, with Qatar and UAE supply down about 45% (54 bcm); Asian spot prices averaged 17.5 USD per MMBtu in Q2¹²

Regulation adopted on 26 January 2026 bans Russian LNG imports fully from the start of 2027²¹

Parliament voted for a three-year delay to importer methane obligations due from 2027, against the Commission's proposed one year; talks with the Council followed²²

LNG's strength is flexibility: a cargo can go wherever prices are highest, which made it Europe's main replacement for Russian pipeline gas. It also exposes buyers to chokepoints such as Hormuz and to bidding wars with Asia. Shell expected world LNG trade to be roughly flat in 2026.

Sources

1. Gas Market Report, Q3-2026: Executive summary IEA, 2026
2. U.S. LNG exports rose 23% in the first half of 2026 because of higher capacity US EIA, Today in Energy, 2026
3. Qatar shuts Ras Laffan LNG plant after Iranian drone strike (Bloomberg) World Oil, 2026
4. QatarEnergy provides production update LNG Industry, 2026
5. Middle East disruption leaves 30M-tonne hole in Qatari LNG exports (Riviera Maritime Media) IENE, 2026
6. QatarEnergy's LNG expansion project poised to start operations in November, sources say (Reuters) BOE Report, 2026
7. QatarEnergy NFE LNG Train 1 to start 1H 2027; Ras Laffan repairs to take 3 years Oil and Gas Journal, 2026
8. Qatar's North Field East gas expansion to begin output in mid-2026 The New Arab, 2025
9. Russian gas imports: Council gives final greenlight to a stepwise ban Council of the EU (via EEAS), 2026
10. EU Parliament backs 3-year delay to methane importer obligations S&P Global Commodity Insights, 2026