Offshore wind: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Offshore wind costs depend on large turbines, steel foundations, subsea cables, installation vessels and port capacity, plus finance. Projects sell power through auctions or contracts for difference, so build costs and interest rates drive the economics.
Proxy US PPI: turbines and turbine generator sets index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jun 2011 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for offshore wind itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkOffshore wind and Steel
Monthly changes 0.05 little or none correlation 12-month changes -0.01 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.17 monthly changes Lead or lag −1 mo Offshore wind tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.14) Price function, Jun 2011 to Sep 2026 Offshore wind ≈ 26.3 × (Steel)0.26 R² 0.54 On this fit, a 10% higher steel price goes with a 2.5% higher offshore wind price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and index, BLS base period.Chart: Offshore wind and Steel prices rebased to 100 at Jun 2011, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jun 2011, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Offshore wind price against Steel price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2011), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Monopile and jacket foundations and towers use very large amounts of steel plate. The proxy is a US turbine price index shared by several power technologies, and it does not track steel monthly (0.05) because offshore contracts fix prices years ahead.
little or none co-movement month to month · 184 months Show chartsArray and export cables carry power ashore and use a lot of copper, along with aluminium. The turbine proxy shows no monthly link with copper (-0.04), since cable costs are not in the turbine index.
little or none co-movement month to month · 184 months Show chartsSubsea export cables are one of the largest costs of an offshore farm and a supply bottleneck. The US cable index and the turbine proxy show no monthly link (0.00) and a weak yearly link at 0.23.
little or none co-movement month to month · 184 months Show chartsMost offshore turbines use permanent-magnet generators with neodymium and dysprosium magnets. China dominates supply, so rare earth export rules are a risk for offshore projects. Magnet makers outside China are few and costly.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Installation vessels and shipyards build and service offshore farms, and vessel shortages have raised costs. The US shipbuilding index and turbine proxy share an industrial cycle over a year, with 12-month changes correlating at 0.55.
little or none co-movement month to month · 184 months Show chartsOffshore wind displaces gas power in Europe and Asia, and high gas prices raise its value. The turbine proxy does not follow gas, with monthly moves correlating at -0.05. Build costs matter more.
little or none co-movement month to month · 184 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.