Thermochemical storage: What to track

An R&D bet: cycle stability and the first real orders

What this tab covers The attributes worth tracking regularly, with the latest value, the direction of travel and why each matters.

Treat as an R&D bet: track cycle stability, pilot results and whether any firm reaches commercial orders.

Category	Attribute	Latest	Trend	Why it matters
Techno-economic	LCOS trajectory (capex outlook)	No LCOS found; oxide storage estimated USD 15-100 per kWh; IRENA expects as low as USD 10 by 2050¹⁵	↗ improving	Long-dated target with high uncertainty.
Technical	Capacity fade and state of health (cycle stability)	CaO residual conversion 7.5% (model assumption); Ti-doped Mn2O3 loses 53-63% of uptake in 30 cycles⁴⁶	↗ improving	Sintering is the main barrier; dopants and stabilisers are the fix being tested.
Supply chain	Critical mineral cost and geopolitical concentration	Mostly abundant materials; cobalt oxide is the exception⁵	→ stable	Choice of oxide sets mineral exposure.
Market	Ancillary service market saturation	Not relevant; slow response suits seasonal heat¹	→ stable	Value lies in long-duration heat.
Regulatory	Safety and environmental compliance	Process and pressure rules; some salts release HCl³	→ stable	No dedicated standards yet.
Impact	Lifecycle carbon payback period	Energy payback 2.2-2.5 years for a calcium looping solar plant⁹	→ stable	Shows the embodied footprint is small.
Technical	Pilot scale reached	CREATE 182 kWh (Warsaw); SaltX 0.5 MW / 10 MWh (Berlin)²⁷	↗ improving	First proof points outside the laboratory.
Technical	Technology readiness	Mostly prototype (IRENA 2020); salt hydration expected to advance in 5-10 years¹	↗ improving	Indicates investment horizon.