Natural gas: Criticality

How a pipeline became a geopolitical weapon in 2022

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	25.5%	2.0%	11.0%	+$27.0 bn	No	World's largest producer (25% of 2024 output, 1,033 bcm) and largest LNG exporter at about 115 bcm in 2024 (Energy Institute 2025).
EU	High	0.9%	35.4%	7.9%	−$105.7 bn	No	Produced 33 bcm and consumed 323 bcm in 2024, so about 90% import-dependent; replaced most Russian pipeline gas with LNG and Norwegian supply and must fill storage to 90% before winter (Energy Institute).
India	High	0.9%	4.1%	0.0%	−$15.0 bn	No	Imports about half its gas (37.9 bcm of LNG against 70.3 bcm of consumption in 2024), nearly 40% of it from Qatar, which made the 2026 Ras Laffan outage a direct hit to fertiliser and city gas supply (Energy Institute; Business Today).
China	High	5.9%	17.8%	0.8%	−$62.7 bn	Yes	Produced 248 bcm and consumed 434 bcm in 2024, importing 105 bcm as LNG plus pipeline gas from Russia, Turkmenistan and Myanmar; largest LNG importer by value (Energy Institute; UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.0%	11.2%	0.0%	−$41.2 bn	No	Almost entirely import-dependent, buying 89 bcm of LNG in 2024 against 91 bcm of consumption; 18.8% of world LNG import value (Energy Institute; UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Medium	4.7%	3.6%	1.3%	−$8.97 bn	no list	Roughly balanced: South and Central America produced 165 bcm and consumed 169 bcm in 2024; Trinidad and Peru export LNG, Venezuela holds 6.3 tcm of reserves and Argentina's Vaca Muerta is growing (Energy Institute).
Middle East	Low	17.4%	0.1%	21.0%	+$65.2 bn	no list	Net exporter: produced 738 bcm and consumed 593 bcm in 2024; Iran (32 tcm) and Qatar (25 tcm) hold about 30% of world reserves and Qatar exported 107 bcm of LNG (Energy Institute).
Australia	Low	3.8%	0.0%	14.3%	+$44.5 bn	No	Produced 150 bcm but used 37 bcm in 2024, exporting 107 bcm as LNG, mainly to Japan, China and Korea (Energy Institute).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Gas is not on the US 2025 or India 2023 critical minerals lists, which exclude fuels, but it is a front-line energy-security issue. Europe's 2022 crisis showed how a pipeline supplier can use flows as leverage. The EU responded with new LNG terminals, storage targets and demand cuts. Gas also underpins food: only about 2% of output makes nitrogen fertiliser, yet that fertiliser sustains a large part of world crop output (Conway). Power generation has substitutes in renewables, coal and nuclear. High-temperature industry and fertiliser have few. Methane leaks add a climate risk.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,039 unconcentrated