Uranium: Cycles

From cartel shocks to a recent tripling in price

The World Bank publishes no uranium price. The Energy Institute's spot series rose from $30.46 a pound of U3O8 in 2020 to $86.24 in 2024. Reactor life extensions, new Chinese and Indian reactors, financial buying and supply problems tightened the market. History shows violent swings. The spot price climbed from under $7 in late 1973 to over $40 by mid-1976, helped by a producer cartel and utility panic buying (Radetzki & Wårell). The bust came as reactor plans shrank and inventories were run down. Demand barely responds to price, and new mines take many years to develop.

No public benchmark price series for this commodity in the datasets used. Many minor materials trade on private contracts.

Super-cycles in uranium

Uranium has had two great booms, in the mid-1970s and 2003-2007, each followed by a long bust, and a third upswing since 2020. Its market is thin: most uranium is sold under long-term contracts and the spot market is small, so shifts in utility buying, inventories or a few mines move prices sharply. Supply responds slowly because mines take a decade or more to permit and build, while demand is almost fixed once reactors are running. Spot prices went from under $7/lb in late 1973 to over $40/lb by mid-1976 (Radetzki), and averaged $86/lb in 2024 (Energy Institute).

1. 1973-1979

   A producer cartel formed in 1971-72 with government support. When the US enrichment agency demanded long-dated firm contracts, utilities rushed to buy uranium; producers withheld supply (Radetzki and Wårell 2021).

   Spot rose from under $7/lb U3O8 (late 1973) to over $40/lb (mid-1976) and stayed high through most of the 1970s (Radetzki and Wårell, Handbook of Primary Commodities)

2. 1980-2002

   Utilities found they had over-bought as reactor plans shrank, large rich deposits were found in Canada and Australia, and inventories and ex-military material covered demand. Real prices fell back to pre-cartel levels (Radetzki and Wårell 2021).

   Spot fell to around $7-10/lb for much of the 1990s and to about $7/lb in 2000-2001 (indicative; basis: widely reported spot indicators, not in the local price data)

3. 2003-2008

   Inventories ran down, new reactor plans revived and the flooding of Cigar Lake during construction in 2006 removed expected supply, prompting a speculative spike and crash.

   Spot rose from about $10/lb in 2002 to a peak of about $136/lb in June 2007, then fell below $50/lb by late 2008 (indicative; basis: widely reported UxC and TradeTech spot indicators, not in the local price data)

4. 2011-2020

   The Fukushima accident in 2011 shut Japan's fleet and slowed reactor programmes, leaving a long surplus; producers such as Cameco and Kazatomprom cut output late in the decade.

   Spot averaged $30.46/lb in 2020 (Energy Institute, S&P Global Canada spot)

5. 2021-2025

   Financial buyers such as the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust bought spot material, utilities returned to term contracting, and sanctions risk on Russian supply grew.

   Spot annual average rose from $35.16/lb (2021) to $49.78/lb (2022), $60.37/lb (2023) and $86.24/lb (2024) (Energy Institute); in 2025 spot averaged about 14% less than in 2024 (Freedom Broker), while Kazatomprom's CEO put the long-term price at about $80/lb (August 2025)

What drives the cycle

• Reactor build-out and life extensions. Red Book 2024 projects 574-900 GWe by 2050, against 394 GWe in 2023; China, India and new small reactors drive the growth.
• Utility term contracting cycles. Utilities buy years ahead; when they under-contract, a wave of term buying lifts both term and spot prices.
• Concentrated supply. Kazakhstan produced 39% of mine output in 2024 and the top ten mines 62% (WNA), so one country's acid shortages or one mine's flood moves the market.
• Secondary supply and inventories. Inventories and ex-military material covered 24% of demand in 2022 but only 10% in 2024 (WNA), so primary supply is becoming decisive.
• Geopolitics of conversion and enrichment. Russia's large share of enrichment and sanctions on Russian uranium split the market into Western and non-Western channels.

Metrics to track