Aerospace and defence: Chokepoints and risks

Civil aircraft, military platforms, weapons, satellites and launch vehicle makers

Engine and casting supply is the bottleneck: the backlog tops 17,000 aircraft, nearly 12 years of production, and IATA does not expect supply to normalise before 2031-2034⁵^,⁶.
China dominates rare earths, gallium and germanium used in radars, magnets and optics, and its export restrictions have already raised costs for firms such as Thales and Rheinmetall².
Airbus and Safran had met half their pre-2022 titanium needs from Russia and have had to find new suppliers, and munitions capacity remains short of demand².
Arms revenue is concentrated in US firms (about 49% of the top 100, calculated) and export controls limit technology transfer².
Defence work depends on government budgets and politics, which can delay programmes for years.