Acrylic acid: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Acrylic acid is made by oxidising propylene in two steps and turned into acrylate esters and superabsorbent polymers. Its price follows propylene, with demand from paints, adhesives, nappies and textiles, and heavy Chinese capacity.
Proxy US PPI: other basic organic chemicals index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for acrylic acid itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkAcrylic acid and Propylene
Monthly changes 0.29 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.64 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.42 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Acrylic acid ≈ 164.2 × (Propylene)0.07 R² 0.01 On this fit, a 10% higher propylene price goes with a 0.7% higher acrylic acid price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Acrylic acid and Propylene prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Acrylic acid price against Propylene price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Propylene is the only carbon source, so acrylic acid is priced as a margin over it. The petrochemical proxy moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.29 monthly and 0.64 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsAcrylate esters bind water-based paints, a large outlet. The paints index barely moves with the proxy monthly, 0.07, because paint prices are reset only a few times a year, but yearly moves correlate at 0.57.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsAcrylic emulsions and pressure-sensitive adhesives for labels and tapes use acrylate esters. The adhesives index moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.24 monthly and 0.61 yearly. Glue prices adjust to resin costs only slowly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsOil sets the cost of propylene from naphtha crackers and refineries. Brent moves with the proxy at 0.23 monthly and 0.58 yearly, diluted because the proxy covers many other chemicals.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRefinery catalytic crackers supply a large share of the propylene used for acrylic acid. The refinery index moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.38 monthly and 0.68 yearly. Refinery run cuts therefore tighten its feed.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.