Acrylic acid: Cycles

Boom years, a Chinese glut and the 2021 freeze

Acrylic acid and esters follow propylene costs and construction and consumer demand. Margins were very high in 2011-2012 and again in 2021, when supply outages and post-Covid demand for paints and hygiene products coincided, and collapsed when Chinese additions arrived. The floor is set by integrated Chinese cash costs; the ceiling by outages and substitution with VAE and styrene-acrylic latex. SAP is steadier, with contract pricing to diaper makers.

With AA around $900-1,000/t and propylene in the $700s/t in 2025, the spread was about $400-500/t, near cash cost for non-integrated producers (indicative).

Booms and busts

1. 2011-2012

   Tight supply and strong Asian demand.

   Asian acrylic acid above $2,500/t (indicative, ICIS historical)

2. 2015-2016

   Chinese additions and low oil prices.

   fell to about $900-1,100/t CFR China (indicative)

3. 2021

   US Gulf freeze shut plants; post-Covid paint and hygiene demand surged.

   China acrylic acid more than doubled from 2020 lows to above CNY 15,000/t (indicative)

4. 2024-2025

   Oversupply in China; margins thin. Listed producers such as BASF and Arkema reported weak acrylic margins (indicative).

   about $850-1,100/t CFR China (indicative)

What drives the cycle

• Propylene price. Main cost; PDH glut keeps it low in China.
• Construction and paint demand. Esters follow housing and decorative paint.
• Hygiene demand. SAP demand grows with diaper use in India, Africa and among older adults.
• Chinese capacity. China holds about half of capacity and sets export prices.

Metrics to track