Battery anode materials: Cycles

From bottleneck to glut and back: the anode price cycle

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Anode prices follow coke and graphitisation costs and the balance of Chinese capacity against cell demand. The 2021-22 EV boom caused graphitisation shortages and price rises; Chinese firms then built capacity four to nine times EV demand, and 2023-25 brought low prices and thin margins. In 2026 GGII expects prices up 10-20% on tight low-sulphur coke and 28% demand growth. Trade policy adds a second cycle: Chinese export permits (Dec 2023), a US anti-dumping and countervailing case that ended without duties (ITC, Mar 2026), and suspended Chinese anode controls (to 10 Nov 2026).

The spread to watch Anode price minus coke and graphitisation cost

Not published freely; Chinese graphitisation outsourcing fees are the closest proxy (SMM, Baiinfo).

Booms and busts

2021-2022
EV demand outran graphitisation capacity; graphitisation became a bottleneck and Chinese firms started massive expansions.
not published in sources used; Chinese anode makers reported record margins (indicative)
2023-2025
Capacity flooded the market. Spherical graphite hit an 11-year low and natural graphite lost share to cheap synthetic.
spherical 99.95% C fell from $2,500-2,800/t to $2,000-2,300/t in 2023 (Fastmarkets); flake -100 mesh $460-489/t FOB China (Sept 2024)
2026
Demand rose 39% in 2025 and coke tightened. GGII forecast price rises; new capacity announcements resumed.
anode prices forecast up 10-20% in 2026 (GGII); 1.08 Mt of capacity announced in Q1 2026 (SMM)

What drives the cycle

Graphitisation power price. The largest conversion cost; power curbs in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan have cut output in the past.
Low-sulphur coke supply. Refinery coke availability sets synthetic anode cost; GGII cites it for the 2026 price rise.
Cell demand and chemistry. Every lithium-ion chemistry uses graphite, so anode demand follows GWh; sodium-ion would switch some demand to hard carbon.
Trade measures. US duties and Chinese controls decide whether non-Chinese plants are viable.

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
Anode shipments and product mix	Demand and share of synthetic	GGII; SMM
Low-sulphur petroleum coke and needle coke prices	Main input	SMM; Baiinfo
Spherical graphite FOB China	Natural anode reference	Fastmarkets; Benchmark
US AD/CVD decisions on Chinese anode	Western price premium	US Commerce Department