Antibiotic intermediates (6-APA, 7-ACA): Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Antibiotic intermediates such as 6-APA and 7-ACA are made by fermenting sugars into penicillin G or cephalosporin C and then splitting them with enzymes. Costs depend on fermentation feeds, energy and scale, and China dominates supply.
Proxy US PPI: broad and medium spectrum antibiotics index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Dec 2009 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for Antibiotic intermediates (6-APA, 7-ACA) itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkAntibiotic intermediates (6-APA, 7-ACA) and Sugar
Monthly changes -0.05 little or none correlation 12-month changes -0.25 weak correlation Last 5 years 0.02 monthly changes Lead or lag +5 mo Sugar tends to lead by 5 months (r 0.10) Price function, Dec 2009 to Sep 2026 Antibiotic intermediates (6-APA, 7-ACA) ≈ 96.9 × (Sugar)-0.44 R² 0.24 On this fit, a 10% higher sugar price goes with a −4.1% lower Antibiotic intermediates (6-APA, 7-ACA) price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and $/kg. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Antibiotic intermediates (6-APA, 7-ACA) and Sugar prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2009, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2009, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Antibiotic intermediates (6-APA, 7-ACA) price against Sugar price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2009), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Glucose and sucrose feed the fungi that produce penicillin G and cephalosporin C. The proxy shows no clear link, with monthly moves at -0.05 and yearly at -0.25, as US antibiotic prices reflect generic competition, not inputs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsCorn starch and glucose syrup are the main fermentation sugars in Chinese plants, with corn steep liquor as a nutrient. Monthly moves correlate at -0.06 with the antibiotics proxy, as feed costs are a small part of final drug prices.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsVitamins and antibiotic intermediates are both made in large Chinese fermentation plants and face similar consolidation and pricing. Against the vitamins proxy, monthly moves correlate at 0.38 and yearly at 0.57, though only 0.05 over the last five years.
weak co-movement month to month · 202 months Show charts6-APA and 7-ACA are turned into amoxicillin, cephalexin and other antibiotic APIs, which India makes in volume. The medicinal chemicals index correlates at -0.03 monthly and 0.19 over the last five years, as the two chains price separately.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsFermentation needs much steam and power, and Chinese plants burn coal for both. Coal costs matter for producers, but the US proxy does not show it, with monthly moves correlating at -0.05.
little or none co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.