Bio-based polyethylene and MEG: Emissions

Can a plastic be carbon negative? It depends what you count

What this tab covers The greenhouse-gas footprint per tonne, split by lifecycle phase (feedstock, production, movement, use, end of life), the global total, other environmental impacts, levers and low-carbon routes, India's position, and where the investment opportunity lies. Emission intensity -3.00 t CO2e per t range about -3 including biogenic carbon uptake; about +1 or more excluding uptake or with land-use change (indicative); fossil PE about 1.6-2.3 · cradle-to-gate including CO2 taken up by sugarcane (about 3.1 t CO2 per t PE stoichiometric) Global emissions per year -0.60 Mt CO2e per year 2025 · indicative: about 200 kt (191 kt sold in 2024) x -3 t; Braskem says its 2023 expansion alone removes about 185 kt CO2e a year

Per t of bio-PE, cradle-to-gate. Intensity: Braskem via Business Wire (Jul 2023): each tonne removes 3 t CO2; Braskem 2025 LCA via Hydrocarbon Processing: net benefit about 5 kg CO2e/kg vs fossil HDPE; fossil range from polyethylene tile. Global total: derived; Braskem 2023.

Footprint by lifecycle phase

Phase	Intensity	Share	Main sources of emissions	Notes	Source
Feedstock	net negative: uptake of about 3.1 t CO2 per t PE minus cane farming and ethanol emissions (indicative)	–	cane farming, fertiliser N2O, burning where practised, land-use change	indirect land-use change is contested and can erase much of the benefit (indicative)	Braskem 2023; indicative
Production / process	positive, not published	–	dehydration and polymerisation energy		indicative
Movement	small	–	ethanol trucking in Brazil; container shipping of resin		indicative
Use	not applicable	–	inert		not applicable
End of life	about 3.1 t biogenic CO2 per t if incinerated; stored if landfilled or recycled	–	same fate as fossil PE	carbon benefit only persists if the PE is not burned, or if burning is counted as biogenic	indicative

Other environmental impacts

Land and water for cane; biodiversity risk if cane expands into native vegetation; plastic leakage and microplastics as for fossil PE.

Levers to cut emissions

Low-carbon ethanol (bagasse cogeneration, no burning, lower fertiliser)
Pair with recycling to keep biogenic carbon locked up
Use surplus ethanol where fuel demand is saturated (India)

India

India makes about 20 billion litres of ethanol a year and blends 11-12 billion litres, leaving 8-9 billion litres surplus (S&P Global, Jun 2026). At about 2.2 m3 per t of ethylene (indicative), 1 billion litres could make roughly 450 kt of bio-ethylene (derived).

Emission figures are indicative global averages from the life-cycle studies named; actual footprints vary widely by site, energy mix and method.

Low-carbon routes

Route	Intensity	Cost premium	Status	Source
Sugarcane ethanol to PE (Braskem)	about -3 t CO2e per t cradle-to-gate (Braskem)	about 30-50% over fossil PE (indicative (unverified))	260 kt/yr in Brazil; Thailand 200 kt MoU	Braskem 2023; ethylene tile
Mass-balance bio-naphtha cracking	lower than fossil (not published)	high (indicative)	commercial in Europe	indicative

For a climate investor Bio-PE is proven technology with one producer and a narrow, brand-led market. For India the angle is unusual: a structural ethanol surplus that could supply an ethanol-to-ethylene plant, perhaps at a sugar-mill cluster with a petrochemical partner. What has to be true: ethanol priced below its fuel value for chemical use, buyers paying a premium (often put at 30-50%, unverified) or a carbon price that covers it, and rules that credit bio content. Braskem's single 2023 expansion and unconfirmed Thai plant show how slowly this market grows.