Custom synthesis (CDMO): Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Custom synthesis and contract development and manufacturing (CDMO) firms make molecules to order for drug and agrochemical companies. Prices are set in project contracts by capacity, skills and regulatory track record, with raw materials passed through.
Proxy US PPI: synthetic organic medicinal chemicals and botanical drugs index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for Custom synthesis (CDMO) itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkCustom synthesis (CDMO) and Methanol
Monthly changes -0.01 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.15 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.09 monthly changes Lead or lag −1 mo Custom synthesis (CDMO) tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.17) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Custom synthesis (CDMO) ≈ 15.4 × (Methanol)0.44 R² 0.69 On this fit, a 10% higher methanol price goes with a 4.3% higher Custom synthesis (CDMO) price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and index (BLS base period).Chart: Custom synthesis (CDMO) and Methanol prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Custom synthesis (CDMO) price against Methanol price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.CDMOs make many APIs and advanced intermediates for innovator drug firms, a fast-growing business for Indian companies. Both share the medicinal chemicals index here, so no separate pair statistics are shown.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Peptides and oligonucleotides, boosted by GLP-1 drugs, are among the fastest-growing CDMO segments. A shortage of capacity in this area gives CDMOs pricing power that general chemistry work lacks, and is drawing heavy investment.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.CDMOs both buy and make chiral building blocks, as complex projects need specialist starting materials. The availability of these inputs, often from a few specialist suppliers, can set project timelines and costs.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Development work uses large amounts of high-purity reagents, solvents and catalysts. Reagent costs are a small part of CDMO fees but can matter in early, small-scale projects, where catalogue prices apply.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Large-scale CDMO plants consume and recover solvents such as methanol. Against the organic chemicals proxy, monthly moves correlate at -0.01 and yearly at 0.15, as solvent costs are passed through in contracts.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMany building blocks and intermediates made by CDMOs start from aromatic chemicals. Against the petrochemical proxy, monthly moves correlate at 0.13 and yearly at -0.09, so feedstock swings barely reach CDMO pricing.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.