Ethylene: Production
How China built two-thirds of the world's new crackers
How China built two-thirds of the world's new crackers What this tab covers Who makes it and how much: world capacity and output, utilisation, the top producing countries and companies globally and in India, concentration, new capacity coming, and each region's position.| Measure | Figure | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| World capacity | about 231 Mt/yr at end-2024, from about 183 Mt in 2019 | CareEdge Ratings via Indian Chemical News, 2025; consistent with Argus (221.8 Mt in 2023) and Wood Mackenzie (55 Mt at risk was 24% of capacity, May 2024) | |
| World output | about 180-185 Mt in 2024 (indicative: capacity x about 80% utilisation) | derived from CareEdge 2025 and Argus 2024 | |
| Capacity utilisation | 79% globally in 2023; Asia about 82% in 2024 and about 81% in 2025 to August | Down from 89% in 2018. ICIS put the 1992-2023 average at 88%. South Korean crackers ran at 70-80% in late 2025. | Argus May 2024 and Aug 2025; ICIS Sep 2024; ChemOrbis Dec 2025 |
| Concentration | top country (China) about 25%; top 3 about 50% of capacity (indicative) | Company concentration is low: the largest producers (Sinopec, ExxonMobil, SABIC, Dow, PetroChina) each hold about 4-6% of world capacity (indicative). | indicative |
| New capacity | about 47 Mt of new ethylene capacity in 2024-2028, about 54% of it in China | China: 7.65 Mt in 2025 (8 crackers), 10.7 Mt in 2026 (9 crackers), 6.8 Mt in 2027 (6 crackers) (Argus Aug 2025), including BASF Zhanjiang 1 Mt, Huajin Aramco Panjin 1.65 Mt (Q3 2026), PetroChina Dushanzi 1.2 Mt (Q4 2026). Elsewhere: S-Oil Shaheen, Korea, 1.8 Mt (mid-2026); Chevron Phillips/QatarEnergy Golden Triangle, US, about 2 Mt (2026); INEOS Antwerp 1.4 Mt (2026-27); Dow Path2Zero, Canada (late 2029). Europe will have closed 8 crackers, over 4 Mt, by end-2027 versus 2020. | Argus May 2024, Aug 2025, Mar 2026; ChemOrbis Dec 2025 |
Top producing countries
China 25% · about 55-60 Mt/yr capacity (2024, indicative) United States 19% · about 45 Mt/yr (indicative) Saudi Arabia 8% · about 18 Mt/yr (indicative) South Korea 5% · about 12-13 Mt/yr (indicative) India 4% · about 9 Mt/yr (indicative, sum of company crackers) Japan 3% · about 6-7 Mt/yr (indicative) indicative (basis: CareEdge 2025 additions share and Argus China pipeline); indicative (basis: ACC and EIA as known); indicative; indicative (company disclosures as known)Largest producers: global
| Company | Country | Volume | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinopec largest producer; about 14-15 Mt including JVs (indicative) | China | not published | 2024 | Sinopec annual report |
| ExxonMobil about 10 Mt (indicative) | US | not published | 2024 | ExxonMobil disclosures |
| SABIC about 10-12 Mt including affiliates (indicative) | Saudi Arabia | not published | 2024 | SABIC annual report |
| Dow about 10 Mt (indicative); Path2Zero cracker in Alberta delayed to late 2029 (Argus 2026) | US | not published | 2024 | Dow 10-K |
| PetroChina about 8-9 Mt (indicative); Dushanzi 1.2 Mt/yr cracker due Q4 2026 (ChemOrbis) | China | not published | 2024 | PetroChina annual report |
| LyondellBasell ran US crackers at about 90% in early 2026 | Netherlands/US | not published | 2025 | Argus Mar 2026 |
| Chevron Phillips Chemical start-up mid-to-late 2026 | US | 2 Mt/yr new cracker (Golden Triangle, with QatarEnergy) | 2026 | Argus Mar 2026 |
| INEOS first new European cracker in decades | UK/Belgium | 1.4 Mt/yr new ethane cracker (Project ONE, Antwerp) | 2026-2027 | Argus Aug 2025 |
Largest producers: India
| Company | Country | Volume | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries largest Indian producer (IEEFA 2025); about 4 Mt across Jamnagar, Hazira, Vadodara, Dahej, Nagothane (indicative) | India | not published | 2024 | Reliance annual report |
| Indian Oil Corporation second largest (IEEFA 2025); Panipat naphtha cracker about 0.86 Mt (indicative) | India | not published | 2024 | IOCL annual report |
| HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) Bathinda dual-feed cracker about 1.2 Mt (indicative) | India | not published | 2023 | HMEL |
| ONGC Petro additions (OPaL) Dahej dual-feed cracker about 1.1 Mt (indicative) | India | not published | 2024 | OPaL |
| GAIL Pata gas cracker about 0.9 Mt (indicative) | India | not published | 2024 | GAIL annual report |
India has about 9 Mt/yr of ethylene capacity (indicative), led by Reliance and IOCL, with public sector firms providing 87% of building-block additions planned 2010-2030 (IEEFA 2025). Capacity is projected at 13.7 Mt/yr by FY29 (KPMG 2025), but polymer imports rose to about 9 Mt a year in FY23-FY24 (CareEdge 2025).
Position by region
| Region | Position |
|---|---|
| US | Low-cost ethane exporter; US ethylene hit about $364/t in Nov 2025 and inventories reached about 1.6 Mt, 17% above the prior high (Argus 2026). Exports rose about 45% in 2025. |
| EU | Naphtha-based and high cost; over 4 Mt closed or closing 2020-2027, with Mossmorran (UK) shut in March 2026 (Argus). Exposed to EU ETS benchmark cuts of 20-27%. |
| India | Mid-sized producer, growing; polymer demand growth of 6-7% a year outpaces cracker additions, so imports of PE and PP fill about one-fifth of demand (CareEdge 2025). |
| China | Builds about half of new world capacity; Chinese crackers forecast to run at 75-76% in 2027-2028 (Argus 2025); plans to phase out small crackers. |
| Japan | Ageing naphtha crackers; five ran heavy turnarounds from March 2026 and consolidation is under way (Argus 2026). |
| Middle East | Ethane-advantaged exporter; over 40% of world PE exports in 2025. The 2026 Iran war all but closed the Strait of Hormuz in March-April; more than 28 Mt/yr of Gulf and Iranian ethylene capacity was affected by early April (ChemOrbis, Apr 2026; Hydrocarbon Processing, Mar 2026). |