Ethylene: Trading
Why Asian crackers need $800 ethylene to break even
What this tab covers How it is bought and sold: buyers and sellers, price benchmarks and who publishes them, exchanges, contract types, traders, how Indian buyers price it, recent price points, and good sources to follow.Who buys, and where
- US Gulf Coast (Mont Belvieu pipeline grid, export terminals)
- Middle East (mostly captive, little spot)
- Southeast Asia and Korea spot cargoes
Who sells, and from where
- NE Asia (China, Taiwan) import markets
- Europe (Italy imports rose about 12-fold from the US in 2025, Argus)
- India (small refrigerated imports for derivatives)
Price benchmarks
| Benchmark | Publisher | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Ethylene CFR NE Asia | ICIS / S&P Global Platts | spot, weekly and daily |
| Ethylene Mont Belvieu (non-TET and EPC) | OPIS, Argus, ICIS | spot pipeline, daily |
| NWE ethylene monthly contract price | settled between producers and consumers, reported by ICIS/Platts | monthly contract, FD NWE |
| Ethylene CFR SE Asia | ICIS / Platts | spot, weekly |
Exchanges
| Venue | Contract | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| CME Group | Mont Belvieu ethylene cleared swaps (indicative) | thin liquidity; most hedging is via feedstock (ethane, naphtha) or polymers |
| Dalian Commodity Exchange | LLDPE and PP futures | deepest liquid proxy for Asian olefin chain risk |
Contract types
- Monthly contract prices (Europe, US) with formula links to naphtha or ethane
- Spot cargoes of 3,000-10,000 t on refrigerated ships
- Long-term pipeline supply between neighbouring plants
- Tolling and cracker joint ventures
Traders and distributors
- Vitol
- Trafigura
- Mitsui
- Mitsubishi Corporation
- Marubeni
- Sumitomo Corporation
- Enterprise Products (US export terminal operator)
How Indian buyers price it
- India consumes almost all ethylene captively; merchant trade is small and priced on import parity to CFR India or CFR SE Asia.
- Downstream PE is priced by producer list prices (Reliance, IOCL, GAIL, HMEL) revised every one to two weeks against import parity.
- The BIS Quality Control Order on polyethylene, imposed in January 2024, was rescinded in November 2025 (CareEdge 2025), easing imports.
Recent price points
| Date | Price | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | about $364/t | US Gulf spot | Argus podcast, Mar 2026 |
| Dec 2025 | $700s/t (expected for 2026) | CFR Asia | ChemOrbis, Dec 2025 |
| Dec 2025 | naphtha $560-580/t; break-even ethylene about $800/t | Asia | ChemOrbis, Dec 2025 |
| Aug 2026 | prices 'surged' in week to 21 Aug on EO, glycol, PE demand; no level published | Asia | ICIS via Hellenic Shipping News, Aug 2026 |
Good sources to follow
Argus Chemicals podcastsfree podcast · Argus MediaGlobal ethylene supply, margins and closures
ICIS Asian Chemical Connections blogfree blog · John Richardson, ICISChina-driven petrochemical cycle and capacity analysis
ChemOrbis plastics newsfreemium research site · ChemOrbisAsian olefin and polymer prices and outlooks
Platts Chemical Trendsfreemium research site · S&P Global Commodity InsightsHalf-yearly olefin and polymer outlook
Hellenic Shipping News (petrochemicals)free newsletter · Hellenic Shipping News WorldwideReposts ICIS and Platts weekly Asian petrochemical reports