Furfural and furanics (FDCA): Cycles

Corncobs, Chinese inspections and wide regional price gaps

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Furfural prices swing with corncob supply, Chinese environmental inspections, foundry demand (steel and auto castings) and coal costs. IMARC's series shows US prices falling from $1,638/t (Mar 2025) to $1,375/t (Jun 2026) while German prices rose from $1,991/t to $2,523/t over the same period, so regional spreads are wide and persistent. The floor is Chinese cash cost; the ceiling is substitution by phenolic resins in foundries and NMP in refineries. FDCA has no market price yet.

The spread to watch Furfural price minus corncob and steam cost

Not published; at about 10 t of corncobs and 25 t of steam per t (indicative), steam is the larger cost in most plants.

Booms and busts

2017-2018
Chinese environmental inspections closed many small furfural plants, tightening supply (indicative).
price rises reported; numbers not reached (indicative)
2025
Prices eased in the US and Japan and held in Europe.
US $1,638/t (Mar) to $1,402/t (Dec); Germany $1,991/t to $2,008/t (IMARC)
2026
European and Brazilian prices rose sharply in Q2 with the oil shock and freight costs.
Germany $2,083/t (Mar) to $2,523/t (Jun) and $2,501/t (Sep); Brazil $2,206/t (Sep) (IMARC)

What drives the cycle

Chinese supply and inspections. Most output comes from many small Chinese plants.
Foundry activity. Furan resins follow casting output for autos and machinery.
Coal and steam costs. Large steam use per tonne.
Bio-based polymer policy. Would decide whether FDCA and PEF scale.

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
IMARC quarterly furfural prices by country	Only public regional series	IMARC
Avantium plant ramp-up and offtake updates	Test of FDCA scale-up	Avantium newsroom
China furfural exports (HS 293212)	World supply	UN Comtrade