Paracetamol: Cycles

How lockdowns and fever demand tripled paracetamol prices

Paracetamol prices move with Chinese PAP supply, acetic anhydride costs and seasonal flu demand. They rose sharply in early 2020 and peaked around Rs 900/kg in the pandemic, then fell back to about Rs 250/kg by 2024 as Chinese supply returned. The floor is set by benzene and acetic anhydride costs plus conversion; the ceiling by how fast Indian and Chinese plants can add shifts.

Not published. Stoichiometric inputs are about 0.72 kg PAP and 0.68 kg acetic anhydride per kg.

Booms and busts

1. Jan-Apr 2020

   Hubei lockdown cut PAP supply; India restricted paracetamol API exports from March to late May 2020.

   Rs 262/kg (Jan 2020) to Rs 450/kg (Mar) and Rs 425/kg (mid-Apr) (Tribune, Apr 2020)

2. 2020-2022

   Pandemic fever demand and freight costs.

   about Rs 900/kg at the peak (India Seatrade News, 2024)

3. 2023-2024

   Chinese supply recovered; Aug 2023 brief rise on acetic anhydride and Chinese plant outages, then decline.

   Rs 600/kg to about Rs 250/kg (India Seatrade News, 2024)

4. 2025-2026

   Prices steady at low levels; Q2 2025 India well below US and EU prices.

   India $2,958/t, China $3,732/t, US $3,821/t (IMARC, Q2 2025); Pharmaoffer average $5.27/kg across all order sizes, 12 months to June 2026, up 14.8% in the last 90 days

What drives the cycle

• PAP supply from China. Main input; Chinese plant outages raise Indian costs.
• Acetic anhydride. Tight Chinese supply raised paracetamol prices in Aug 2023 (Angel One).
• Flu seasons and pandemics. OTC demand spikes.
• Export curbs. India's 2020 restrictions showed governments treat it as strategic.

Metrics to track