Peptides and oligonucleotides: Cycles

How GLP-1 demand turned peptide makers into boom stocks

Prices are not public, so cycles show in company revenues. Peptide CDMOs boomed with GLP-1 demand from 2023. Bachem's 2025 sales rose 19.2% in local currency and it guides 35-45% for 2026. Oligonucleotide demand rose with siRNA approvals. Risks are capacity overbuild as originators make more in house, oral small-molecule GLP-1s, and price erosion when semaglutide goes generic (Canada, India, China, Brazil from 2026).

Bachem 28.6% excluding one-offs in 2025 and low thirties guided for 2026.

Booms and busts

1. 2020-2022

   COVID boosted nucleotide and lipid demand for mRNA vaccines; biotech funding peaked then fell.

   not published

2. 2023-2025

   GLP-1 shortages; CordenPharma signed about EUR 3 billion of multi-year contracts and announced EUR 900 million investment (July 2024).

   Ozempic sales $13.8 billion and Mounjaro $5.16 billion in 2023 (DCAT)

3. 2025

   Bachem sales CHF 695.1 million, up 19.2% in local currency; CMC development up 35.6%.

   EBITDA margin 30.9% reported (Bachem)

4. 2026

   Semaglutide patents expire in several markets including India; Samsung bids for PolyPeptide; WuXi AppTec put on 1260H list.

   Bachem guides 35-45% growth; generic GLP-1 prices well below originator (not published)

What drives the cycle

• GLP-1 patient numbers. Each 10 million patients on semaglutide 2.4 mg needs about 1.25 t API a year (derived).
• Oral small-molecule GLP-1s. Could cut peptide API demand if they win share.
• Generic entry. Expands volume and shifts supply to Indian and Chinese makers.
• BIOSECURE and China risk. Moves contracts from WuXi TIDES to Western, Korean and Indian CDMOs.

Metrics to track