Purified terephthalic acid: Cycles

A business that lives on a thin processing fee

PTA is a conversion business: its price is PX plus a processing fee. The fee is the cycle. Chinese overbuilding since 2019 has kept fees near or below cash cost for much of 2023-2025, with Chinese margins about $40/t in late 2024 (Argus) and fees around CNY200/t in mid-2025 (Tiger Brokers). The floor is set by run cuts and announced production cuts among Chinese producers; the ceiling by polyester demand peaks and plant outages. Absolute prices follow crude through PX.

Chinese processing fee about CNY200/t in July-October 2025 (Tiger Brokers). Chinese offers in January 2026 were PX plus $45-55/t; non-China plants need PX plus at least $100/t (S&P Global).

Booms and busts

1. 2021-2023

   India imported heavily from China, peaking at about 960,000 t in 2022 (derived from Tiger Brokers). From mid-2023 India's BIS quality-control order stalled Chinese imports (S&P Global, Jun 2023).

   not published in sources reached

2. Late 2024

   New Chinese PTA met weak polyester demand. Margins fell below breakeven and producers announced cuts.

   China PTA margins about $40/t; PTA fell 3.4% in early November 2024 (Argus)

3. 2025-January 2026

   Processing fees stayed around CNY200/t, implying losses (Tiger Brokers). India revoked the QCO in late 2025 and Chinese exports to India jumped.

   PTA $649/t FOB China and $687/t CFR India on 21 Jan 2026 (Platts via S&P Global)

What drives the cycle

• Chinese capacity additions. New 2.5-3 Mt/yr trains keep the industry long; four more are planned for 2027-2028.
• Polyester demand. Textiles and bottles; Chinese PTA ran at 70-71% in October 2026 as polyester demand lagged (Procurement Resource).
• India's trade policy. QCOs and anti-dumping decisions switch Chinese exports to India on or off.
• PX price. About 85-90% of cost; crude shocks pass through.

Metrics to track