Toluene: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Toluene comes mostly from refinery reformers and cracker gasoline. Much is blended into petrol for octane, so fuel prices set a floor, while solvents, TDI and conversion into benzene and xylenes add chemical demand.
Proxy US PPI: petrochemical manufacturing index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for toluene itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkToluene and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.52 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.89 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.33 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Crude oil tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.72) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Toluene ≈ 7.55 × (Crude oil)0.71 R² 0.82 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 7.0% higher toluene price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and $/bbl.Chart: Toluene and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Toluene price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Toluene is made from naphtha in reformers and crackers, so crude sets its base cost. The proxy index, which covers the whole petrochemical basket, correlates with Brent at 0.52 monthly and 0.89 yearly.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRefiners can blend toluene into petrol as an octane booster or sell it to chemical buyers, so petrol margins set its alternative value. The refinery index moves with the proxy at 0.68 monthly and 0.90 yearly.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsToluene disproportionation plants turn toluene into paraxylene and benzene when polyester demand makes xylenes worth more. Both sit in the same proxy index here, so no separate statistics are shown for this pair.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.TDI, the isocyanate for flexible foam in mattresses and car seats, is made from toluene. The thermosetting resins proxy moves with the petrochemical proxy at only 0.22 monthly, because TDI is a small slice of a broad resin index.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.