Bananas: Criticality

How export fruit came to pay for imported grain

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.0%	22.1%	4.1%	−$2.69 bn	No	Largest importer with 22.1% of world banana import value in 2024 and no significant production outside Hawaii and Puerto Rico (UN Comtrade).
EU	High	0.5%	41.5%	15.7%	−$4.01 bn	No	Large importer (Germany, the Netherlands and France together 19.7% of world import value in 2024), with small production in the Canary Islands, Madeira and French Caribbean (UN Comtrade).
India	Low	27.0%	0.0%	2.7%	+$353.9 m	No	Largest producer (27.0% of world output, 2024) and a small but growing exporter (2.7% of world export value), selling mostly at home (FAOSTAT; UN Comtrade).
China	Medium	8.4%	6.2%	0.5%	−$840.4 m	No	Second-largest producer (8.4% of world output) and a large importer (6.2% of import value), buying from Vietnam and the Philippines (FAOSTAT; UN Comtrade 2024; FAO via FreshPlaza).
Japan	High	0.0%	6.7%	0.0%	−$974.2 m	No	Imports 6.7% of world banana value (2024), 75-80% of it from the Philippines (UN Comtrade; FreshPlaza, Sep 2026).
Latin America	Low	23.3%	2.8%	62.4%	+$7.84 bn	no list	Ecuador, Colombia, Costa Rica and Guatemala supply 54% of world export value, and Ecuador alone about 32% of export volume in 2025 (UN Comtrade 2024; FAO).
Middle East	High	0.4%	3.4%	0.0%	−$499.7 m	no list	Importers with little production: Saudi Arabia took 2.1%, Iraq 0.9% and Kuwait 0.4% of world import value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Australia	Low	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	No	Grows its own bananas (yield 29.2 t/ha in 2024) and bars fresh banana imports under its biosecurity rules (FAOSTAT; Australian biosecurity policy).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Bananas are not on any critical raw materials list, but they are a staple food in parts of Africa and Asia and a key export earner for Ecuador and Central America. Morgan shows how export crops such as bananas paid for imported grain in poor countries, exposing diets to world prices (pdf p. 318). The main threat is Fusarium wilt Tropical Race 4, a soil fungus that kills Cavendish plants and has spread from Asia to Latin America. An earlier strain wiped out the Gros Michel variety last century.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 996 unconcentrated