Cassava: Cycles
Two separate markets, one in Africa and one in Asia
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.Cassava has no world benchmark price. Prices are set in two separate worlds. African market prices follow local harvests, transport costs and currency swings. Asian chip and starch prices follow China's demand, and therefore maize prices and Chinese policy on maize stocks and ethanol. Supply adjusts slowly, since cassava takes many months to mature. Disease shocks matter too: cassava mosaic disease, which recently reached mainland Southeast Asia, has cut yields in Cambodia and Vietnam.
No public benchmark price series for this commodity in the datasets used. Many minor materials trade on private contracts.
Super-cycles in cassava
Cassava has no global price benchmark and no clear super-cycle. World output has grown steadily, from 152 Mt in 1990 to 342 Mt in 2024 (FAOSTAT), mostly in Africa for food. Export markets have had booms driven by policy: European feed demand in the 1970s and 1980s, then Chinese ethanol and starch demand from the 2000s. These shifts moved Thai output sharply. Local prices swing widely; in Salem raw tapioca fell from Rs 1,350 per quintal in Mar-Apr 2014 to Rs 700-800 in late 2015 (TNAU).
- 1970s-1980s
The EU's tariffs on maize did not apply to tapioca, so feed makers switched to Thai chips; Cargill and others built Thai export terminals. The EU later limited imports with quotas agreed with Thailand.
No price figure sourced; Europe imported about 4 Mt of tapioca a year by the late 1970s (Morgan 1979) and Thai output rose from 3.4 Mt (1970) to 16.5 Mt (1980) (FAOSTAT)
- 2005-2015
China's demand for ethanol, alcohol and starch replaced Europe as the main export market.
No world price series sourced; Thai output rose from 16.9 Mt (2005) to 32.4 Mt (2015) (FAOSTAT)
- 2014-2015
A glut in India and lower Chinese demand pushed down root, sago and starch prices in Tamil Nadu.
Salem raw tapioca from Rs 1,350/quintal (Mar-Apr 2014) to Rs 700-800 (2015); sago from Rs 6,700 to Rs 3,582 per 90 kg bag; starch from Rs 4,000 to Rs 2,260 per 90 kg bag (TNAU DEMIC)
- 2015-2024
Cassava mosaic disease and lower prices cut Thai output, while Cambodia grew as a supplier to Thai and Vietnamese processors.
Thai output fell from 34.1 Mt (2022) to 28.6 Mt (2024); China's import unit value was about $250/t in 2024 (calculated from UN Comtrade)
What drives the cycle
- Chinese ethanol, alcohol and feed demand. China takes 40.7% of world cassava import value; its policies on fuel ethanol and maize prices decide import volumes.
- Maize prices. Cassava chips and starch compete with maize in feed, ethanol and starch, so maize sets a ceiling.
- Disease and weather. Cassava mosaic virus has spread across Southeast Asia; drought affects yields and starch content.
- Food security in Africa. Population growth in Nigeria and the DR Congo drives most volume growth, largely outside world markets.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| China cassava chip and starch imports | Main export demand signal | China Customs |
| Thai tapioca chip and starch export prices | Benchmark export prices | Thai Tapioca Trade Association |
| Salem tapioca, sago and starch prices | Indian price signal | TNAU Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC); SAGOSERVE |
| World production by country | Long-run supply and yield trends | FAOSTAT |
| Maize futures | Competing starch and feed price | CBOT and Dalian Commodity Exchange |