Grapes & wine: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Grape and wine prices depend on harvests in Europe, the Americas and Australia, weather and frost, wine stocks and drinking habits. The series is a US wineries price index proxy, which moves slowly because wine is sold on contracts.
Proxy US producer price index: wineries index, BLS base period · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for grapes & wine itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkGrapes & wine and Soda ash
Monthly changes 0.19 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.34 weak correlation Last 5 years 0.23 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Grapes & wine ≈ 21.1 × (Soda ash)0.36 R² 0.70 On this fit, a 10% higher soda ash price goes with a 3.5% higher grapes & wine price over the long run. Units: index, BLS base period and index, BLS base period.Chart: Grapes & wine and Soda ash prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Grapes & wine price against Soda ash price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Wine bottles are made from glass, and soda ash is a main input. The soda ash series is a US alkalies index that also covers caustic soda and chlorine; it correlates with the wineries proxy at 0.19 for monthly moves and 0.34 for yearly moves.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsVines suffer from mildew and need many fungicide sprays, including copper and sulphur products. The US pesticides index shows little link with the wineries proxy: monthly moves correlate at 0.05 and yearly moves at 0.13.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSulphur is sprayed on vines against mildew and used as sulphur dioxide to preserve wine. The sulphur series is a sulphuric acid index driven by fertiliser demand, not vineyard use, and shows a weak negative link: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.20.
weak co-movement month to month · 225 months Show chartsDiesel for vineyard machines and power for cooling during fermentation are costs. The diesel proxy shows no link with the wineries index: monthly moves correlate at 0.02 and yearly moves at minus 0.03.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.