Grapes & wine: Criticality

How climate change is redrawing the wine map

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	6.5%	20.7%	4.5%	−$7.43 bn	No	Fourth-largest grape producer (6.5% in 2024, FAOSTAT) yet the largest importer of fresh grapes (22.6%) and wine (20.1%) by value (UN Comtrade 2024).
EU	Low	29.4%	32.8%	62.6%	+$16.2 bn	No	Dominates wine exports (France 33.3%, Italy 23.0%, Spain 8.3% of world value), and Germany (9.7%) and the Netherlands (6.6%) import table grapes (UN Comtrade 2024).
India	Low	5.1%	0.2%	0.9%	+$341.0 m	No	Sixth-largest grape producer (5.1% of world output in 2024, FAOSTAT) and a table grape exporter of about 0.30 Mt in 2025 (USDA PSD), mostly to Europe.
China	Low	22.2%	4.1%	2.2%	−$834.9 m	No	Largest grape producer (22.2% in 2024, FAOSTAT), third-largest fresh grape exporter (8.6%) and an importer of 4.5% of world wine value (UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.2%	3.9%	0.1%	−$1.79 bn	No	Net wine importer with 4.7% of world wine import value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	10.2%	3.2%	12.2%	+$4.66 bn	no list	Peru (13.9%) and Chile (12.1%) lead world fresh grape exports, and Chile supplies 4.2% of wine exports (UN Comtrade 2024).
Middle East	Low	3.4%	0.2%	0.2%	−$23.5 m	no list	Not among the top six grape or wine importers by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Australia	Low	2.1%	1.5%	4.1%	+$1.37 bn	No	Supplies 4.6% of world wine export value (UN Comtrade 2024).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2025/26. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Grapes and wine are on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list, and they are not food-security staples. Their risks are economic and climatic. Wine regions depend on narrow climatic windows, so warming shifts ripening dates, raises sugar and alcohol levels, and pushes vineyards to higher latitudes and altitudes. Spring frosts, hail, heatwaves and wildfire smoke cause sudden losses. Pitron quotes an expert noting that the French sell wine, not grapes: the value lies in processing. Table-grape exporters depend on fast, reliable cold-chain shipping.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 833 unconcentrated