Hafnium: Cycles

How a by-product price rose eightfold in two years

Hafnium shows how a by-product price can spike when demand outruns its host. The unwrought price reported by USGS averaged $781/kg in 2021, $1,590 in 2022 and $6,130 in 2023. It eased to $4,560 in 2024 and $3,800 in 2025. Supply cannot respond quickly, because producers make hafnium mainly when they separate nuclear zirconium. Meanwhile demand for aerospace superalloys and semiconductors grew. High prices encourage substitution, such as zirconium in some superalloys. Qualifying a change in a jet engine, however, takes years.

US price, Hafnium, unwrought (Argus annual average)

Super-cycles in hafnium

Hafnium is a tiny, illiquid market of under 100 t a year, and its price swings on shifts in aerospace and chip demand against supply fixed by nuclear zirconium output. The sources used give no long price series, but recent moves are extreme: from about $800/kg in 2021 to a record of about $5,000/kg in early 2023, an easing through 2024-25, and a new jump to over $5,000/kg in October 2025 on Chinese export controls. These are scarcity spikes in a by-product, not a demand super-cycle.

1. 2021-2023

   Aerospace recovered and chip demand grew while Russian exports were blocked and Chinese exports stalled. A 5-10 t shortage opened in 2022 and consumers bought ahead.

   USGS annual average rose from $781/kg (2021) to $1,590/kg (2022) and $6,130/kg (2023); traders quoted $1,200-1,400/kg in early 2022 and a record $4,500-5,000/kg in February 2023 (Reuters).

2. 2024-mid 2025

   Stocks bought in the 2023 rush were drawn down and buying slowed.

   USGS annual average fell to $4,560/kg (2024) and $3,800/kg (2025); Rotterdam was $3,700-4,200/kg at end-September 2025 (Argus).

3. October 2025

   Chinese dual-use export controls (no licences for some traders since October 2024), production problems at the largest French producer, and gas-turbine and AI memory demand tightened the market.

   Rotterdam rose to $5,100-5,800/kg, up 38% from end-September and the highest since December 2023 (Argus, Oct 2025).

What drives the cycle

• Nuclear zirconium output. Supply is a by-product of hafnium-free zirconium for reactors, so reactor build rates set supply (China planned six to eight reactors a year in 2020-25, Reuters 2023).
• Gas turbine and aircraft engine build rates. Superalloys take about 61% of use; 2024 turbine orders of about 80 GW far exceeded maker capacity (Argus 2025).
• Semiconductor and memory demand. Hafnium oxide is a key dielectric and AI-driven memory output is raising use (Argus 2025).
• Export controls. Russian licences blocked exports in 2023 and Chinese dual-use controls have curbed shipments since late 2024.
• Concentration in France and the US. Two countries do over 90% of processing (EU CRM 2023), so one plant outage moves the world price.

Metrics to track