Indium: Cycles

The two forces behind indium's 2024-25 price rise

US warehouse indium prices held at about $223 to $250/kg in 2021–23. They rose to $351 in 2024 and about $370 to $390 in 2025, peaking at $408 in June 2025. Two forces drove the rise. Chinese export restrictions from February 2025 cut unwrought exports by 72% year on year. New demand came from indium phosphide in 5G and AI data-centre optics. Supply responds only as fast as zinc smelters add recovery circuits. Display demand is mature, so InP is the swing factor.

US price, Indium 99.99%, FOB US warehouse (Argus)

Super-cycles in indium

Indium has had one of the most violent price histories of any metal, swinging between about $100/kg and $1,000/kg over 20 years (Lipmann Walton 2020). Each boom came from a demand surge (LCD screens in 2003-05) or speculation (China's Fanya exchange in 2011-15), and each bust from supply catching up or stocks being released. Because indium is a by-product of zinc, supply cannot respond quickly, so prices overshoot both ways. The 2020s brought a milder rise driven by Chinese export restrictions and new demand from indium phosphide in data-centre optics.

1. 2002-2008

   After a 1990s glut from former Soviet stocks, Europe's largest producer, Metaleurop, shut in 2002 just as flat-panel LCD output took off. Prices rose fifteen-fold, then crashed in the financial crisis.

   From about $60/kg (2002) to about $1,000/kg in 2005-06 (Lipmann Walton 2020), above $1,000 in 2005 (Fastmarkets); the 2008 average was $685/kg (USGS Circular 1365), then prices fell about 80% in the crisis.

2. 2011-2017

   China's Fanya Metal Exchange sold indium to retail investors as a scarce asset and accumulated about 3,600 t, five to six years of supply. It collapsed in late 2015, leaving an overhang.

   About $800/kg in 2014 during Fanya buying; $190-230/kg at the start of 2017 and an August 2017 low of $180-200/kg (Fastmarkets); a 2019 auction of the Fanya stock opened at about $113/kg and failed (Lipmann Walton).

3. 2021-2025

   China added indium to export restrictions in February 2025 and unwrought exports fell 72% year on year. Demand grew for InP lasers in 5G and AI data centres.

   US warehouse price $223/kg (2021) to $351 (2024) and $370 (2025 average), peaking at $408/kg in June 2025; Rotterdam $217 to $380 (USGS MCS 2026, Argus).

What drives the cycle

• Display panel output. ITO takes about 60% of indium; LCD and OLED panel production in China and Korea is the base load.
• Zinc smelter recovery circuits. Supply grows only when smelters add circuits; Chinese environmental crackdowns on zinc mining cut indium output 20% in 2017.
• Chinese export policy. China makes about 70% of refined indium and restricted exports in February 2025.
• Stock overhangs. The Fanya stock of about 3,600 t can flood the market if a court sale succeeds.
• Indium phosphide demand. Optical transceivers for AI data centres and 5G are the fastest-growing use (USGS 2026).

Metrics to track