Lithium: Criticality

Geology is fine; processing is the choke point

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.2%	3.3%	3.3%	−$19.1 m	Yes	One brine operation in Nevada (output withheld), net import reliance above 50%, imports from Chile 54% and Argentina 43% (2021-24), reserves of 4.4 Mt and lithium on the 2025 critical list (USGS 2026).
EU	High	0.0%	5.2%	3.4%	−$139.6 m	Yes	Critical and strategic, 81% import reliance for ores and 100% for refined material, 0% end-of-life recycling input (EU CRM 2023); Portugal mined only 380 t in 2025 (USGS).
India	Low	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	−$27.5 m	Yes	No mine output, no conversion plant, on India's 2023 critical list; strategy rests on KABIL's Argentine blocks, the Reasi resource and imported cells.
China	Medium	21.0%	43.7%	38.9%	−$569.6 m	Yes	Mined 62,000 t (21%) in 2025, took 68.9% of world carbonate imports and supplied 80.1% of hydroxide exports by value in 2024 (USGS; UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.0%	13.3%	0.5%	−$834.6 m	Yes	No mine output; took 6.1% of carbonate and 24.3% of hydroxide imports by value in 2024 for cathode makers (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	29.9%	0.2%	50.4%	+$2.94 bn	no list	Chile (56,000 t), Argentina (23,000 t) and Brazil (12,000 t) mined about 31% of 2025 output and hold most identified resources; Chile alone supplied 75.3% of carbonate exports by value (USGS; UN Comtrade).
Middle East	Low	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	−$3.69 m	no list	No mine output listed by USGS; a minor importer.
Australia	Low	38.2%	0.1%	0.6%	+$30.7 m	Yes	Largest miner at 92,000 t (32% of 2025 output), with reserves of 8.4 Mt, but ships most spodumene to China for conversion (USGS 2026).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Lithium is critical and strategic for the EU, and on the US 2025 and India 2023 lists. The EU puts supply risk at 1.9 and economic importance at 3.9, with import reliance of 81% for ores and 100% for refined material. Geology is not the issue; processing is, because China converts most of the world's lithium and exports 80% of traded hydroxide. Battery substitutes are limited today, though sodium-ion cells are emerging; USGS lists calcium, magnesium, mercury and zinc only for primary batteries. Companionality is about 55%, reflecting brine operations that also yield potash and other salts.

EU 2023 Critical also a strategic raw material US 2025 list Yes India 2023 list Yes Production HHI 2,442 moderately concentrated

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Lithium: supply risk 1.9, economic importance 3.9. EU import reliance, extraction 81% EU import reliance, processing 100% EU recycling input rate 0%

Substitutes

Calcium, magnesium, mercury and zinc as anodes in primary batteries; calcium and aluminium soaps in greases; sodic and potassic fluxes in ceramics and glass