Maize: Criticality

How one drought or Black Sea war shakes world feed

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	31.0%	0.7%	32.4%	+$14.1 bn	123%	No	Grew 31.0% of world maize in 2024 and supplied 32.4% of export value; 2025/26 crop was a record 430.9 Mt with 141 Mt going to ethanol (FAOSTAT; Comtrade; USDA).
EU	High	4.8%	20.0%	13.2%	−$2.64 bn	68%	No	Imports about 20 Mt a year against 2.3 Mt of exports in 2025/26, a net importer of about 18 Mt; France's 2026 crop is forecast 38% below the prior year (USDA WASDE, Oct 2026), and Spain took 5.0% of world import value in 2024 (Comtrade).
India	Low	3.3%	0.5%	0.4%	−$48.2 m	96%	No	Grew 3.3% of world maize in 2024 (about 40 Mt); maize now supplies about half of India's fuel ethanol on top of poultry feed, tightening supply (FAOSTAT; AIDA 2026).
China	Medium	24.2%	8.9%	0.0%	−$3.76 bn	95%	No	Second-largest grower (24.2%) and 8.9% of world import value in 2024; holds 177 Mt, about 58% of world stocks (USDA, Oct 2026).
Japan	High	0.0%	9.3%	0.0%	−$3.94 bn	0%	No	Grows almost none and imports about 15.7 Mt a year (2025/26), 9.3% of world import value in 2024 (USDA; Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	17.6%	24.2%	34.3%	+$4.92 bn	110%	no list	Brazil (18.5%) and Argentina (14.8%) are the second and third exporters by value; Mexico is the top importer (12.7% of value; 26.2 Mt in 2025/26) (Comtrade; USDA).
Middle East	High	0.1%	3.4%	0.0%	−$1.46 bn	12%	no list	Egypt imports about 12.9 Mt a year (2025/26) and took 5.4% of world import value in 2024 (USDA; Comtrade).
Australia	Low	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	+$40.8 m	125%	No	A minor grower (75,000 ha harvested in 2024, FAOSTAT) and not a significant trader.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Maize is not on mineral critical lists such as the US 2025 or India 2023 lists. Its risks are about food and feed security. Mexico, Japan, Korea and Egypt depend on four exporters, and a single Corn Belt drought or Black Sea war can tighten supply worldwide. Biofuel mandates divert grain from feed and food when prices are high. White maize is a staple food in Mexico and southern and eastern Africa, where price spikes hurt directly. In feed, wheat, sorghum and soybean meal can partly substitute (Geman, pdf p. 160), which helps limit long shortages.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,693 moderately concentrated