Maize: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Maize is priced on Chicago futures and set by harvests in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine, weather, feed demand, US ethanol rules and the dollar. India's maize market is mainly domestic, with growing demand from poultry feed and ethanol.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Maize $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkMaize and Sorghum
Monthly changes 0.71 strong correlation 12-month changes 0.87 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.44 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Aug 2020 Maize ≈ 0.989 × (Sorghum)1.00 R² 0.85 On this fit, a 10% higher sorghum price goes with a 10.1% higher maize price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt.Chart: Maize and Sorghum prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Maize price against Sorghum price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2020); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Sorghum and maize are close substitutes in animal feed, and US sorghum is often priced against maize futures. The link is very strong, monthly moves at 0.71 and yearly moves at 0.87, though the sorghum series ends in 2020.
strong co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsFeed wheat competes with maize in animal rations, and both respond to world grain stocks and the dollar. Monthly moves correlate at 0.54, yearly moves at 0.74 and 0.58 in the last five years, one of the steadiest grain links.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsUS and Brazilian farmers choose between maize and soybeans on the same land each season, so a price gain in one draws acres from the other. Monthly moves correlate at 0.53 and yearly moves at 0.76.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsA large share of the US maize crop is turned into fuel ethanol, and India is adding maize-based ethanol capacity. The ethanol index shares yearly moves at 0.70 but monthly moves at only 0.26, as blending rules and petrol prices also drive ethanol.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMaize needs much nitrogen fertiliser, so urea is a key growing cost. Monthly moves barely correlate, at 0.06, but yearly moves reach 0.60, because high grain prices raise fertiliser demand and fertiliser costs feed into planting decisions over seasons.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDiesel for tractors, drying and transport is a direct farming cost, and fuel prices also set ethanol demand. The diesel proxy shares monthly moves at 0.22 and yearly moves at 0.63 with maize.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.