Maize: Cycles
A 21% jump in a year, and the 2022 peak
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.The World Bank maize price was $239.6/t in September 2026, up 21% on a year earlier ($197.4) and level with five years ago ($235.6). The ten-year range runs from $143.9 to $348.2. In real 2010 dollars the annual average peaked at $271.4 in 2022 and was $175.0 in 2025, below 2010. Booms come from US summer drought, oil prices feeding ethanol demand and Chinese buying. By 2011 US ethanol plants took one in six bushels of world corn (Blas & Farchy, pdf p. 245). Supply responds within a season as farmers switch acres from soybeans, so spikes rarely last. Prices tend to dip at harvest.
Latest (2026-09) 240 $/mt vs 1 year ago +21% vs 5 years ago +2% vs 10 years ago +61%Maize price
Chart: Maize monthly price
Chart: Maize annual real price
Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.Super-cycles in maize
Maize joined the 1970s and 2000s commodity booms, and biofuels tied it more closely to oil after 2005. Real prices still trend down over decades as yields rise: world maize yields went from 4.3 t/ha in 2000 to 5.8 t/ha in 2024 (FAOSTAT). In 2010 dollars the World Bank maize annual average was $271/t in 2022 and $175/t in 2025, below the 2010 level of $186/t. Spikes are usually caused by a US drought or a shock to exports (Ukraine 2022), and they fade within one or two seasons because Brazil and the US can add area quickly. Biofuel mandates raised the price floor after 2006 by adding steady demand.
- 1972-1974
Soviet grain purchases, a poor US crop and the oil shock emptied US stocks.
World Bank maize (monthly average) rose from $51/t (Jan 1972) to $152/t (Oct 1974)
- 1995-1996
Low world stocks after a poor 1995 US crop and strong Asian feed demand.
World Bank maize (monthly average) peaked at $204/t (May 1996), then fell to $84/t by July 1999
- 2006-2008
US ethanol mandates (2005 and 2007 laws), high oil prices and low stocks; then the financial crisis.
World Bank maize (monthly average) rose from $103/t (Jan 2006) to $287/t (Jun 2008), then fell to $150/t (Sep 2009)
- 2010-2013
The 2012 US drought cut the crop; by 2011 US ethanol plants already took one in six bushels of world corn (Blas & Farchy).
World Bank maize (monthly average) rose from $153/t (Jun 2010) to $333/t (Jul 2012), then fell to $148/t (Sep 2016)
- 2020-2023
Chinese import surge, dry South American crops, then Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports.
World Bank maize (monthly average) rose from $144/t (May 2020) to a record $348/t (Apr 2022)
What drives the cycle
- US weather. The US grows about 31% of world maize; a July heatwave at pollination can move world prices sharply (Morgan).
- Biofuel policy. US ethanol uses about a third of the US crop; India and Brazil are adding grain ethanol.
- Chinese imports. China's imports jumped in 2020-21, and its state buying swings world demand.
- Brazil's second crop. Safrinha area and rainfall decide the second half of world export supply.
- Black Sea exports. Ukraine supplied 11.5% of 2024 export value; war disrupts its ports.
- Oil and fertiliser prices. Oil sets ethanol value; nitrogen is the largest input cost.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| US corn condition and yield forecasts | Biggest single swing factor in world supply | USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly) and Crop Production (monthly) |
| US planted acreage | Sets the supply base each year | USDA NASS Prospective Plantings (March) and Acreage (June) |
| US ethanol production and stocks | Tracks the second-largest use | US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report |
| Brazil second-crop estimates | Second-half export supply | CONAB monthly crop survey |
| China corn imports and Dalian futures | Swing demand | China General Administration of Customs; Dalian Commodity Exchange |
| World and exporter stocks-to-use | Overall tightness | USDA WASDE (monthly) |
| Weekly export sales | Real-time demand for US corn | USDA FAS Export Sales Report (Thursdays) |