Nickel: Characteristics
Class 1 versus Class 2: why purity splits the market
What this tab covers The supply and physical characteristics of the commodity. Supply: current production, inventories and stocks, capacity utilisation, geographic and producer concentration, how fast supply responds to price, the project pipeline and capital spending, and logistics and export flows. Material: the physical and chemical properties that set its grade, price and end uses (for example purity and conductivity for metals, API gravity, sulfur and energy content for fuels, moisture, protein and fibre quality for crops).Supply volume characteristics
| Characteristic | Figure | What it means | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current production volume | about 3.9 Mt mine output (2025e) | Indonesia mined about 2.6 Mt, two-thirds of the world, up 13%. Australia's output fell 54% and the Philippines' 24% after low prices forced mine closures. | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Inventory and stock levels | market surpluses of 98.5 kt (2022), 170 kt (2023) and 182 kt (2024), plus 189 kt in the first 9 months of 2025 | These surpluses add up to about 640 kt, roughly 2 months of world use at about 3.5-3.9 Mt a year (derived), much of it now in LME and SHFE warehouses. US LME warehouses held only 110 t at end-2025. | INSG via USGS MCS 2026; derived |
| Capacity utilisation | not published as a world figure; Indonesia's ore quota fell from 379 Mt (2025) to 260-270 Mt (2026) | Indonesian RKEF and HPAL plants were built faster than ore quotas allow, so plant utilisation depends on the RKAB quota. Western sulphide mines in Australia went into care and maintenance. | Benchmark, Feb 2026; USGS MCS 2026 |
| Geographic and producer concentration | Indonesia 62.2%, top-3 (Indonesia, Philippines, Russia) 77.6%, HHI 4,039 (mine) | Chinese-backed groups such as Tsingshan dominate Indonesian output but do not publish totals. Nornickel (198.5 kt) and Vale Base Metals (177.2 kt) lead Class 1 supply. Indonesia supplied 73% of world intermediate products in 2025. | World Mining Data 2026; SMM 2025; company reports |
| Supply elasticity | medium for Indonesian laterites (RKEF lines built in about 2-3 years, indicative); low for sulphide mines (7-10 years) | Indonesia's fast build-out turned a deficit into a surplus by 2022. Government quotas and ore benchmark prices now set supply more than market price. | this tile's lessons; industry practice (indicative) |
| Project pipeline and CapEx | growth concentrated in Indonesian HPAL and RKEF plants | Laterite ore is heading to 88% of supply by 2030 (SMM 2025). Western projects include Tamarack in Minnesota and refinery plans in Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas. The Philippine province of Palawan announced a 50-year ban on new mining permits. | SMM 2025; USGS MCS 2026 |
| Logistics and export flows | unwrought nickel exports worth $11.4 billion (2024) and nickel ore $3.1 billion (2023) | Indonesia banned ore exports in 2020 (indicative), so it ships NPI, matte and MHP to China. The Philippines sells ore to China (35% of ore export value). Ships pass the Malacca Strait and South China Sea. | UN Comtrade 2023-2024; this tile's lessons |
Material characteristics Metal / hard commodity
Nickel gives stainless steel its corrosion resistance and toughness, and makes up most of the cathode in high-energy EV batteries. The market splits by purity: Class 1 (at least 99.8% Ni) for plating, alloys, batteries and exchange delivery, and Class 2 products such as NPI and ferronickel, which are only good for stainless steel.
| Property | Value / specification | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purity / grade | LME: at least 99.80% Ni (ASTM B39); Class 2 NPI about 8-15% Ni; ferronickel about 20-40% Ni | Only Class 1 can be delivered on the LME or used in batteries directly | LME; ASTM B39; this tile's lessons |
| Battery-grade nickel sulphate | NiSO4.6H2O about 22% Ni with tight limits on iron, copper and other metals | Feeds NMC and NCA cathode precursors | Industry specifications (indicative) |
| Corrosion resistance | 304 stainless contains 8-10.5% Ni with 18-20% Cr | Nickel stabilises austenitic steel, giving formability and corrosion resistance | ASTM A240 |
| Strength and heat resistance | pure nickel about 460 MPa tensile annealed; superalloys hold strength above 1,000 C | Jet engines and gas turbines | ASM Handbook (indicative) |
| Melting point and density | 1,455 C; 8.9 g/cm3 | High-temperature use | ASM Handbook |
| Ore type | laterite (saprolite about 1.5-2.5% Ni; limonite about 1-1.5%) versus sulphide | Ore type decides route: RKEF for saprolite, HPAL for limonite, smelting for sulphide | Industry practice (indicative); USGS MCS 2026 |