Nickel: Criticality
Critical for the EU, US and India alike
What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.Exposure by region
| Region | Exposure | Share of world output | Share of world imports | Share of world exports | Net trade (US$) | On own critical list | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | High | 0.2% | 9.3% | 4.9% | −$831.1 m | Yes | Mined 10 kt in 2025 from one Michigan mine and has had no primary nickel refinery since 1985 (only small by-product recovery); net import reliance is 41% including scrap and nearly 100% excluding it, with Canada 44% of primary imports; on the 2025 critical minerals list (USGS 2026). |
| EU | High | 1.2% | 28.3% | 15.5% | −$2.47 bn | Yes | Lists nickel as critical and strategic; import reliance is 31% for ore and 75% at processing, with Finnish mining and refining the main domestic base (EU CRM 2023). |
| India | High | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.1% | −$591.0 m | Yes | No primary production; imports all refined nickel (36.7 kt in FY2026) and growing NPI from Indonesia, partly from Jindal's own smelter; nickel is on India's 2023 critical minerals list. |
| China | High | 3.0% | 26.3% | 14.3% | −$2.30 bn | Yes | Largest importer of nickel ore (61% of 2024 value) and of unwrought nickel (13.9%), and through its firms controls most Indonesian processing capacity; mined only about 120 kt in 2025 (USGS, Comtrade). |
| Japan | High | 0.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | −$527.0 m | Yes | An importer of ore and matte with a refining base of about 8.6% of world refined nickel (EU CRM 2023 data) and 7.3% of 2024 unwrought nickel imports (Comtrade). |
| Latin America | Low | 4.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | +$109.1 m | no list | Brazil mined about 70 kt in 2025 with 16 Mt of reserves (USGS) and is a Vale base; Cuba and Guatemala are smaller laterite producers. |
| Middle East | Low | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | −$6.89 m | no list | No significant nickel mining; the region is a minor importer for stainless and alloy use. |
| Australia | Low | 2.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | +$106.1 m | Yes | Holds the second-largest reserves (25 Mt) but output fell 54% to about 45 kt in 2025 as mines were placed on care and maintenance at low prices (USGS). |
The EU lists nickel as critical and strategic, with supply risk 0.5 and economic importance 5.7. EU import reliance is 31% for ore but 75% at the processing stage. The US 2025 and India 2023 lists both include it. The concern is battery-grade supply: an EV battery uses 40-60 kg of nickel, against 1-2 kg in a combustion car (Scheyder). Indonesian dominance, much of it with Chinese investment, concentrates the risk. Substitutes include low-nickel stainless grades and titanium alloys.
EU 2023 Critical also a strategic raw material US 2025 list Yes India 2023 list Yes Production HHI 4,039 highly concentratedEU 2023 assessment
Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance
Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Nickel: supply risk 0.5, economic importance 5.7. EU import reliance, extraction 31% EU import reliance, processing 75% EU recycling input rate 16% US net import reliance, 2025 41% share of apparent consumptionSubstitutes
Low-nickel, duplex or ultrahigh-chromium stainless steels; nickel-free specialty steels; titanium alloys in corrosive environments