Oats: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Oats are a small, thinly traded grain grown mainly in cool climates such as Canada, Russia and northern Europe. Prices follow the wider feed grain complex, weather in a few growing regions and steady demand from breakfast cereals and horse feed.
Price index US producer price index: oats index, BLS base period · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkOats and Maize
Monthly changes 0.33 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.57 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.16 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Oats ≈ 4.37 × (Maize)0.71 R² 0.45 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 7.1% higher oats price over the long run. Units: index, BLS base period and $/mt.Chart: Oats and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Oats price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Maize is the benchmark feed grain, and oats are fed to livestock when they are cheap relative to it. The index follows maize loosely: monthly moves correlate at 0.33 and yearly moves at 0.57, because oats also respond to their own small harvests.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBarley and oats are grown in the same cool regions and compete for the same fields and feed buyers. Yearly changes correlate at 0.68, stronger than monthly moves at 0.33, since both answer to the same harvest and weather cycle rather than to daily trading.
weak co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsWheat sets the tone for all temperate grains, and poor wheat crops pull buyers towards other grains. The oats index shows this mostly over a year: yearly moves correlate at 0.69 while monthly moves correlate at only 0.23.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNitrogen fertiliser is a main growing cost, and high urea prices push farmers towards crops that need less of it or raise the price needed to plant. The link is slow: monthly moves correlate at 0.24 but yearly moves at 0.72, partly a shared energy cycle.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDiesel for tractors, harvesters and grain drying is a direct farm cost. The proxy for farm energy is the diesel price index, and its yearly moves correlate with oats at 0.62, while monthly moves correlate at only 0.18, since fuel costs pass into grain prices over seasons.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.