Potatoes: Criticality

The Irish famine and the danger of relying on one crop

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	4.9%	6.3%	5.5%	−$50.0 m	No	Fourth-largest producer (4.9% in 2024, FAOSTAT) and both an exporter (5.5%) and importer (6.3%) of fresh potatoes by value (UN Comtrade 2023).
EU	High	13.0%	71.9%	63.0%	−$536.2 m	No	Trade hub: the Netherlands (20.1%), France (17.9%) and Germany (11.3%) lead fresh potato exports, and Belgium (18.6%) is the largest importer, feeding its fry plants (UN Comtrade 2023).
India	Low	14.6%	0.0%	1.7%	+$103.1 m	No	Second-largest producer (14.6% of world output, 57.1 Mt in 2024, FAOSTAT), supplying the home market with little trade.
China	Low	24.3%	0.0%	3.7%	+$229.7 m	No	Largest producer (24.3% of world output, 94.9 Mt in 2024, FAOSTAT).
Japan	Low	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	No	Not among the top six fresh potato traders in 2023 (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Medium	5.6%	1.9%	0.5%	−$91.2 m	no list	The crop's home region, but no Latin American country is among the top six producers or fresh potato traders (FAOSTAT 2024; UN Comtrade 2023).
Middle East	Medium	1.5%	4.0%	3.3%	−$43.2 m	no list	No Middle Eastern country is among the top six traders; nearby Egypt is a major exporter with 6.4% of world value (UN Comtrade 2023).
Australia	Low	0.4%	0.0%	0.5%	+$31.0 m	No	Not among the top producers or traders (FAOSTAT 2024; UN Comtrade 2023).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2023 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Potatoes are not on any critical raw materials list, but they matter for food security in poor and cold regions. Because most are eaten where grown, a local harvest failure hits hard and imports offer little relief. The Irish famine remains the starkest case of dependence on one crop (Morgan, pdf p. 62). Today's risks are late blight, heat and drought, and in some countries reliance on imported seed. The crop's high yield per hectare makes it a useful hedge for land-scarce countries.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 940 unconcentrated