Pulses: Cycles

How a weak monsoon moves prices on Canada's prairies

Pulses have no world benchmark price. Prices swing with the Indian monsoon and Indian policy. A weak monsoon cuts India's crop and lifts import demand, pulling up prices in Canada, Australia and Myanmar; Geman notes that India's 2002-2003 drought cut food grain output by 19%. India then lowers import duties, and when its harvest recovers it raises duties or sets quotas, leaving exporters with surplus. Because pulses are annual, supply responds within a season as Canadian farmers shift acreage between lentils, peas, wheat and canola.

No public benchmark price series for this commodity in the datasets used. Many minor materials trade on private contracts.

Super-cycles in pulses

Pulses have no world super-cycle and no World Bank price series. The market is driven by India, which grows about a quarter and imports about a third of world trade by value. Indian prices swing on the monsoon and on policy: shortages bring duty-free imports and stock limits, and gluts bring duties and MSP procurement. The 2023-25 period shows the pattern. Duty-free yellow pea imports from December 2023 brought a record 7.34 Mt of imports in FY2025. By 2025 pulse prices were deflating and below MSP, and in November 2025 the government reimposed duties.

1. Dec 2023-Oct 2025

   To cool high prices, India allowed duty-free yellow pea imports; more than 3.5 Mt arrived, and FY2025 pulse imports hit a record.

   landed yellow pea price about Rs 32-33/kg in late 2025 (India Sea Trade News, Oct 2025)

2. 2025

   A larger domestic crop (25.23 Mt in 2024-25, up 4%) and heavy imports pushed mandi prices down.

   mandi tur 38%, chana 25%, moong 18% and urad 15% below year-earlier levels; pulse inflation minus 14.53% in August 2025 (India Sea Trade News, Sep 2025)

3. Nov 2025

   India imposed an effective 30% duty on yellow peas from 1 November 2025 to protect farmers ahead of rabi sowing.

   yellow peas in mandis rose from about Rs 3,500 to Rs 3,800/quintal on the announcement (India Sea Trade News, Oct 2025)

What drives the cycle

• Indian monsoon. Kharif pulses (tur, moong, urad) are rainfed, so a poor monsoon cuts output and lifts imports.
• Indian import policy. Duty changes on yellow peas, tur, urad, chana and masoor switch import demand on and off for Canada, Russia, Australia and Africa.
• MSP and procurement. Procurement at MSP sets a floor where it is carried out; NAFED buffer releases cap prices.
• Export-country crops and China. Canadian and Australian harvests and Chinese tariffs on Canadian peas redirect supply.

Metrics to track