Sorghum: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Sorghum is a drought-hardy grain used for feed and ethanol in the United States, Argentina and Australia, and as food in Africa and India, where it is called jowar. Its export price tracks maize, with Chinese buying causing swings. This series ends in 2020.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Sorghum $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Aug 2020What its price moves with
Selected linkSorghum and Maize
Monthly changes 0.71 strong correlation 12-month changes 0.87 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.44 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Aug 2020 Sorghum ≈ 2.20 × (Maize)0.85 R² 0.85 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 8.4% higher sorghum price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt.Chart: Sorghum and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Sorghum price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2020); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Sorghum replaces maize in feed rations and is usually priced against maize futures. The link is the strongest here, monthly moves at 0.71 and yearly moves at 0.87, weakening to 0.44 in the series' last five years as Chinese tariffs disrupted US sorghum exports.
strong co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsSorghum and wheat compete in feed and are grown in overlapping dry regions such as the US southern plains. Monthly moves correlate at 0.46 and yearly moves at 0.72, a looser fit than with maize.
moderate co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsBarley and sorghum are both feed grains and are both bought in large volumes by China. Monthly moves correlate at 0.34 and yearly moves at 0.71, though the link faded to 0.04 in the series' last five years.
weak co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsSome US ethanol plants use sorghum alongside maize, so ethanol margins affect demand. The ethanol index shares yearly moves at 0.54 but monthly moves only at 0.15, as sorghum is a small share of ethanol feed.
little or none co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsSorghum needs less fertiliser than maize but nitrogen is still a key cost. Monthly moves barely correlate, at 0.10, while yearly moves reach 0.69, as fertiliser and grain prices rise together in commodity booms.
little or none co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsDiesel for planting, harvesting and moving grain is a direct cost. The diesel proxy shares monthly moves at 0.17 and yearly moves at 0.61 with sorghum, part of the energy cycle common to grain prices.
little or none co-movement month to month · 176 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.