Titanium: Cycles

How rutile prices have eased since 2022

There is no World Bank price series for titanium. USGS reports rutile at $1,470/t f.o.b. Australia in 2022, falling to $1,140/t in 2025. Ilmenite fell from $595/t in 2021 to $400/t in 2025. Pigment demand follows GDP, construction and consumer goods, so feedstock prices move with the industrial cycle. Metal demand follows a different cycle, driven by aircraft build rates. US sponge imports reached a record 44,000 t in 2025. New mineral-sands projects take years to permit and build, so supply responds slowly.

US price, Rutile, bulk, min. 95% TiO2, f.o.b. Australia (Fastmarkets IM)

Super-cycles in titanium

Titanium feedstock prices move with the paint and construction cycle, since pigment takes about 90% of supply, while metal follows aircraft build rates. The sources used give no long price series, but they show a sharp boom and bust in 2011-2013, a post-pandemic rebound in 2021-2022 and a slide since 2023 as Chinese pigment capacity (6.0 Mt of the world's 9.9 Mt) and new African supply outpaced demand. Reserves exceed 540 Mt TiO2, so cycles are about capacity and demand, not scarcity.

1. 2010-2013

   Strong Chinese construction and restocking after the financial crisis tightened feedstock; Iluka's titanium feedstocks were sold out for 2012 and legacy contracts rolled onto higher prices. Demand then fell with Chinese property curbs.

   Iluka's rutile averaged about $2,094/t in Q4 2012 and fell about 40% by mid-2013 (Iluka June 2013 quarterly).

2. 2021-2022

   Post-pandemic demand for paint and plastics, plus supply disruption, lifted feedstock and pigment prices. China's 2021 magnesium crisis also cut titanium sponge output (Argus).

   Rutile f.o.b. Australia rose from $1,300/t (2021) to $1,470/t (2022); US pigment import unit value from $2,920/t to $3,450/t (USGS).

3. 2023-2025

   Weak construction demand, Chinese pigment expansion and new African sands output left the market oversupplied; Kenmare reported prices falling through 2025.

   Ilmenite f.o.b. Australia fell from $595/t (2021) to $389/t (2023) and $400/t (2025); rutile to $1,140/t (2025); Iluka's 2025 rutile average $1,216/t (USGS; Iluka).

4. 2021-2025 (metal)

   Aerospace recovery raised demand for sponge and US producers relied fully on imports after the last US sponge plant closed in 2024; US imports hit records.

   US sponge import unit value rose from $11.10/kg (2021) to $13.30/kg (2024) before easing to $12/kg (2025); US sponge imports reached 44,000 t in 2025, above the 40,300 t record of 2023 (USGS).

What drives the cycle

• Construction and consumer spending (paint and plastics). Pigment demand tracks GDP, housing and durable goods, and takes about 90% of feedstock (USGS; Iluka).
• Chinese pigment capacity. China holds about 60% of world pigment capacity and is the largest feedstock importer, so its plant additions and exports set pigment and ilmenite prices.
• Mineral sands supply pipeline. New mines in Mozambique, Senegal, Madagascar and Australia take years to permit and build; when they arrive together, prices fall.
• Aircraft build rates. Aerospace is the largest metal use, so Airbus and Boeing output drives sponge and ingot demand.
• Defence and stockpiling policy. The US listed 15,000 t of titanium as a potential stockpile acquisition for FY2025 and funds powder-from-scrap capacity (USGS).

Metrics to track