Tungsten: Cycles

How export controls doubled prices in a year

Tungsten has no World Bank price; USGS cites Rotterdam prices from Argus. Concentrate averaged $252 per metric ton unit of WO3 in 2024 and an estimated $380 in 2025. During 2025, 65% concentrate rose from $266 to $551 and APT from $331 to $675, roughly doubling. The cause was policy. US tariffs on Chinese tungsten products rose to 50% at the end of 2024, and China imposed export controls in February 2025. Earlier, from 1985 to 2004, China drove prices down, hoping competing mines elsewhere would shut (Pitron).

US price, Concentrate, in-warehouse Rotterdam (Argus)

Super-cycles in tungsten

Tungsten's price history is a story of Chinese policy. China cut prices in 1985-2004 to win market share and push rival mines to close (Pitron), and lifted its share of mine output from 83% in 2000 to 88% in 2013 (Humphreys). Export quotas brought a WTO case that China lost in 2014. Prices were steady in 2021-24, then China's export controls of February 2025 and US tariffs set off a historic spike, with APT going from about $331/mtu to over $2,200/mtu in about 15 months. New mines in Korea, Kazakhstan and North America are the supply response.

1. 1985-2004

   Chinese exports flooded the market and drove prices down, closing many Western mines (Pitron 2020).

   Price levels for this period were not available in the sources used

2. 2000-2015

   China's output rose from 30 kt to 85 kt (Humphreys). The US, EU and Japan challenged China's tungsten and molybdenum export restrictions at the WTO in 2012; China removed them in January 2015 (Radetzki and Warell).

   Price levels for this period were not available in the sources used

3. 2021-2024

   A stable market with Chinese production steady and modest demand growth.

   Rotterdam concentrate averaged $225/mtu WO3 (2021), $275 (2022), $258 (2023) and $252 (2024) (USGS, Argus)

4. 2025

   China imposed export controls on selected tungsten items in February 2025, after the US raised tariffs on Chinese tungsten products to 50%; Chinese imports and consumption rose (USGS).

   65% concentrate rose from $266 to $551/mtu and APT from $331 to $675/mtu during 2025; concentrate averaged $380/mtu (USGS). APT averaged $518/mtu and ended the year at $900 (Masan)

5. 2026

   Western buyers scrambled for non-Chinese supply as new mines such as Sangdong were commissioned.

   APT above $2,200/mtu, a record, in March 2026 (Almonty)

What drives the cycle

• Chinese export and production policy. China mines about 80% of tungsten and controls export licences and mining quotas.
• Manufacturing and machining activity. Cutting tools follow car, aerospace and machine-tool output.
• Mining, oil and gas, and tunnelling. Drill bits and picks wear out in use.
• Defence spending. Penetrators, armour and electronics use tungsten; the US had potential stockpile acquisitions of 2,041 t in FY2025 (USGS).
• Non-Chinese mine pipeline. Sangdong, Boguty and North American projects funded under the US Defense Production Act.

Metrics to track