Wheat: Cycles

A 48% jump in a year and the 2022 peak

US hard red winter wheat was $347.0/t in September 2026, up 48% on a year earlier ($233.8) and close to five years ago ($337.6). The ten-year range is $141.8 to $522.3. In real 2010 dollars the annual average peaked at $366.1 in 2022, then fell to $209.6 in 2025, below 2010. Prices sag at the northern summer harvest and firm through autumn until southern crops arrive around December (Geman, pdf p. 162). Big shocks are political as well as weather-driven. The 1972 Soviet purchases tripled US wheat prices within a year (Blas & Farchy, pdf p. 43). Russia's 2010 drought and ban doubled them (pdf p. 237).

Wheat, US HRW price

Chart: Wheat, US HRW monthly price

Chart: Wheat, US HRW annual real price

Super-cycles in wheat

Wheat follows the broad commodity super-cycles of the 1970s and 2000s but mostly moves in sharp, short spikes caused by weather in exporting countries and by export bans. Real prices have trended down for a century as yields rose. In 2010 dollars the World Bank US HRW annual average was $366/t in 2022 but only $210/t in 2025, below the 2010 level of $224/t. Spikes are short because farmers in many countries replant within a season. They are sharp because only about a quarter of the crop is traded and exporters often restrict sales when prices rise, which pushes importers to buy more.

1. 1972-1974

   After a poor harvest the Soviet Union quietly bought huge volumes of US grain in 1972, tripling US wheat prices within a year (Blas & Farchy). The oil shock followed.

   World Bank US HRW (monthly average) rose from $52/t (Jan 1970) to $220.5/t (Feb 1974)

2. 2006-2008

   Australian drought, low stocks, biofuel demand for maize, high oil prices and export curbs by Russia, Argentina and others.

   World Bank US HRW (monthly average) rose from $167/t (Jan 2006) to $440/t (Mar 2008), then fell to $158/t by June 2010

3. 2010-2012

   Russia's drought and export ban in August 2010, then the 2012 US drought. Food inflation fed the 2011 Arab Spring (Blas & Farchy).

   World Bank US HRW (monthly average) rose from $158/t (Jun 2010) to $361/t (Nov 2012)

4. 2021-2022

   Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports; India banned exports in May 2022; fertiliser prices peaked.

   World Bank US HRW (monthly average) rose from $273/t (Mar 2021) to a record $522/t (May 2022)

5. 2025-2026

   USDA puts the 2026 US crop at 41.7 Mt, the smallest since 1970; Russian exports are projected at a five-year low of 40 Mt as conflict in the Black Sea slows shipments; and high urea prices cut Australian planting (USDA WASDE Oct 2026; Kpler).

   World Bank US HRW (monthly average) rose from $231/t (Oct 2025) to $347/t (Sep 2026)

What drives the cycle

• Weather in exporting countries. Drought in Russia, the US Plains, Australia or Argentina cuts exportable supply, which matters more than total world output.
• Export restrictions. Russia's 2010 ban and quotas, India's 2022 ban and Argentina's past quotas turn a shortfall into panic buying.
• Black Sea security and logistics. Russia and Ukraine supply a large share of exports through the Turkish Straits; war risk raises freight and insurance.
• Energy and fertiliser prices. Nitrogen is the main variable cost; urea spikes cut planting and yields the next season.
• Stocks in exporting countries. Stocks outside China (159 Mt end-2025/26) are the real cushion; China's reserves rarely reach the market.
• Dollar and maize prices. A strong dollar makes US wheat less competitive; cheap maize pulls wheat out of feed rations.

Metrics to track