Zirconium: Cycles

The 2022 spike and the slow slide since

There is no World Bank price for zircon. USGS reports premium zircon at $1,530/t CIF China in 2021, jumping to $2,300 in 2022. It then eased each year, to $1,800 in 2025. Sponge ex-works China fell from $30/kg in 2022 to $22/kg. Zircon demand leans on Chinese construction through ceramic tiles. Supply depends on titanium mining decisions, so it cannot easily follow zircon prices. Tilton and Guzmán list zirconium among concentrated industries where producers could restrict output for a time (pdf p. 183).

US price, Zircon, premium grade, CIF China (Fastmarkets IM)

Super-cycles in zirconium

Zircon has had a pronounced boom and bust driven by Chinese ceramics. Prices more than doubled into 2012 as Chinese tile output surged and a few producers held supply tight, then fell by more than half to 2016 when Chinese property demand cooled. A second, smaller upswing peaked in 2022-2023 and prices have eased since. Because zircon is a co-product of titanium sands, supply cannot follow these swings closely, which makes prices volatile for a small, opaque market with no exchange.

1. 2010-2012

   Chinese ceramic tile output and property construction boomed and the three main producers kept supply disciplined; analysts described a rare-earth-style rally.

   Iluka's weighted average zircon price rose to $1,886/t (2011) and $2,080/t (2012) FOB; Goldman Sachs expected $2,500/t in May 2012 (Iluka 2018; FNArena 2012).

2. 2013-2016

   Beijing's property curbs cut tile demand and buyers destocked; Iluka cut prices and held inventory.

   Iluka's average fell to $1,171/t (2013), $1,054/t (2014), $986/t (2015) and $810/t (2016), about 61% below 2012 (Iluka zircon briefing, Nov 2018).

3. 2021-2025

   Post-pandemic demand and tight sands supply lifted prices to a new peak, then weaker Chinese property demand and a 12% fall in world mine output in 2025 left prices lower.

   Premium zircon CIF China rose from $1,530/t (2021) to $2,300/t (2022), then fell to $2,160 (2023), $2,000 (2024) and $1,800/t (2025) (Fastmarkets IM via USGS); Iluka's 2025 average was $1,643/t.

What drives the cycle

• Chinese property and ceramic tile output. Ceramics take about half of demand and China is 62.5% of world zircon imports by value (Comtrade 2024), so Chinese construction sets the cycle.
• Titanium mineral sands economics. Zircon is mined with ilmenite and rutile, so new mines and closures depend on the combined basket price.
• Producer concentration and pricing policy. The top four held 65% of output in 2013; Iluka sets reference prices and uses rewards contracts for about 60% of its sales (Iluka 2018).
• New supply projects. Projects in Australia, Mozambique, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Tanzania (USGS 2026) can add supply in steps.
• Nuclear and zirconia demand. Small in tonnage but high in value; reactor construction drives nuclear-grade metal and hafnium supply.

Metrics to track