Bioethanol: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Bioethanol is fermented from maize in the US, sugar cane in Brazil and cane juice, molasses and grain in India. Its price depends on feedstock costs, blending mandates such as India's E20 programme and the petrol price it competes with.
Price index US PPI: ethanol (ethyl alcohol) index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkBioethanol and Maize
Monthly changes 0.26 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.70 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.20 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Bioethanol ≈ 16.5 × (Maize)0.51 R² 0.47 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 4.9% higher bioethanol price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and $/mt.Chart: Bioethanol and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Bioethanol price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.US ethanol is made almost entirely from maize, which is its largest cost. The ethanol index correlates with maize at 0.26 for monthly moves and 0.70 for yearly moves, a clear feedstock link.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsIn Brazil and India, mills choose between making sugar or ethanol. Monthly moves correlate at 0.16 and yearly at 0.33 with the US index, as Indian ethanol is bought at government-set procurement prices.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsIndia has allowed surplus government rice and broken rice to be used for ethanol to meet blending targets. Rice prices are heavily managed, so monthly moves correlate at -0.03 with the US ethanol index.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsEthanol is blended into petrol, so oil and petrol prices set its value as a fuel. Monthly moves correlate at 0.21 and yearly at 0.51, with oil leading by about 1 month.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRefiners blend ethanol into petrol, and refinery product prices set the price of what ethanol replaces. Monthly moves correlate at 0.34 and yearly at 0.56, stronger than for crude alone.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBoth biofuels depend on crop prices and blending mandates. The soybean oil proxy correlates with ethanol at 0.26 monthly and 0.57 yearly, as farm commodity cycles and fuel prices move both.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.