Ammonia, methanol and e-fuels: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Ammonia, methanol and synthetic fuels store energy as liquids that are easy to ship and keep. Today they are made mostly from natural gas or coal; green versions depend on electrolyser hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide.
Proxy US PPI: nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing index · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for ammonia, methanol and e-fuels itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkAmmonia, methanol and e-fuels and Natural gas
Monthly changes 0.13 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.78 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.11 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Natural gas tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.28) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Ammonia, methanol and e-fuels ≈ 162.1 × (Natural gas)0.36 R² 0.58 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a 3.5% higher ammonia, methanol and e-fuels price over the long run. Units: index and $/mmbtu.Chart: Ammonia, methanol and e-fuels and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Ammonia, methanol and e-fuels price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.The tile uses the same US nitrogen fertiliser index as ammonia, so no separate statistics are shown. Most ammonia goes into fertiliser today, so farm demand sets the price that energy uses must pay.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Grey ammonia and methanol are made from natural gas, which is most of their cost. The fertiliser proxy tracks European gas at 0.78 for yearly moves, though only 0.13 for monthly moves, with gas leading by about a month.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMethanol is a liquid fuel for ships and a hydrogen carrier, also made from gas or coal. The basic organics proxy correlates with the fertiliser proxy at 0.28 for monthly moves and 0.74 for yearly moves, reflecting the shared gas feedstock.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsUrea is made from ammonia and carbon dioxide and is the main nitrogen fertiliser, including in India. The urea price correlates at 0.27 for monthly moves and 0.82 for yearly moves, as both follow ammonia supply.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsGreen ammonia and methanol use hydrogen from electrolysers powered by renewables. Electrolyser and power costs decide whether green e-fuels can compete with gas-based production, which is why India subsidises electrolyser making and green hydrogen output.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.E-methanol and synthetic fuels need carbon dioxide captured from industry or the air. The carbon dioxide index shows little relation to the fertiliser proxy, with monthly moves at -0.09, as the markets barely overlap today.
little or none co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.